On the Role and Technological Readiness of Fast Breeders and Fusion-Fission Hybrids in the World Nuclear Future

This study focuses on the future role of hybrids and fast breeders and the possible time windows for their introduction. The technological readiness of both reactors and associated fuel-cycle facilities during these time windows is examined. Four possible options allowing world nuclear demand to be met within the known uranium resource base are identified: (1) breeders alone rapidly introduced in the year 2000; (2) hybrids alone rapidly introduced in 2000; (3) hybrids and breeders simultaneously introduced in 2000 following traditional market-penetration rates; and (4) hybrids and breeders rapidly introduced simultaneously in 2020. It is shown that breeders can be commercially available in 2000 but that the rapid market penetration required in option (1) would require exceptional efforts. Options (2) and (3) are ruled out since it is impossible for hybrids to be commercially available by 2000. An ambitious fusion development plan would allow hybrids to be commercially available by 2020. Option (4) represents a fall-back position in case the introduction of breeders is delayed beyond 2000 or the rapid market penetration rate required in option (1) cannot be achieved.