Intuition: A Challenge for Psychological Research on Decision Making

Intuition represents an enormous challenge for research on decision making. What is intuition? How does it modify our appreciation of cognitive abilities? When should people trust intuition? These questions set the agenda for this article, which (a) defines intuition, (b) comments on how intuition has been viewed across time in the decision making literature, (c) stresses the need to specify different types of intuition, (d) discusses when intuition is likely to lead to good decisions, and (e) presents four challenges. These are, first, elucidating the evolution of preferences; second, illuminating culturally acquired values such as morals; third, the need to educate intuitive responses; and fourth, problems in using intuition for decision making in a changing world. However, the major challenge facing intuition research is the need for conceptual work to define the nature and scope of different intuitive phenomena. To be useful, the concept should not become too broad.

[1]  Cr Sridhar,et al.  Dance with Chance - Making luck work for you , 2012 .

[2]  Erik Dane,et al.  Conceptualizing and Measuring Intuition: A Review of Recent Trends , 2012 .

[3]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  When Simple Is Hard to Accept , 2012 .

[4]  Fernand Gobet,et al.  The Mechanism of the Einstellung (Set) Effect , 2010 .

[5]  J. Haidt Moral Psychology Must Not Be Based on Faith and Hope: Commentary on Narvaez (2010) , 2010, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[6]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making , 2010 .

[7]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Foundations for tracing intuition: Challenges and methods , 2010 .

[8]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree. , 2009, The American psychologist.

[9]  Li Fei-Fei,et al.  Neural mechanisms of rapid natural scene categorization in human visual cortex , 2009, Nature.

[10]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You , 2009 .

[11]  Tim Rakow,et al.  Please Scroll down for Article the Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Think, Blink or Sleep on It? the Impact of Modes of Thought on Complex Decision Making , 2022 .

[12]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Mindful judgment and decision making. , 2009, Annual review of psychology.

[13]  Chenjie Xia,et al.  How Doctors Think , 2008, McGill Journal of Medicine : MJM.

[14]  Mary Frances Luce,et al.  Boundary Conditions on Unconscious Thought in Complex Decision Making , 2008, Psychological science.

[15]  James G. Clawson Myers-Briggs Type Indicator , 2008 .

[16]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Emotion and Reason in Everyday Risk Perception , 2008 .

[17]  Cilia L. M. Witteman,et al.  Fitting decisions: Mood and intuitive versus deliberative decision strategies , 2008 .

[18]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Determinants of Linear Judgment: A Meta-Analysis of Lens Model Studies , 2007, Psychological bulletin.

[19]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[20]  Felix Acker New findings on unconscious versus conscious thought in decision making: additional empirical data and meta-analysis. , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[21]  E. Sadler‐Smith,et al.  Intuition: a fundamental bridging construct in the behavioural sciences. , 2008, British journal of psychology.

[22]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[23]  Ezequiel Morsella,et al.  The Unconscious Mind , 2008, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[24]  H. Plessner,et al.  Intuition in judgment and decision making , 2008 .

[25]  R. Holland,et al.  In the winning mood: Affect in the Iowa gambling task , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[26]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Heuristic and linear models of judgment: matching rules and environments. , 2007, Psychological review.

[27]  E. Sadler‐Smith,et al.  Developing Intuitive Awareness in Management Education , 2007 .

[28]  Paul Slovic,et al.  The affect heuristic , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  Anna Cuxart,et al.  What Risks Do People Perceive in Everyday Life? A Perspective Gained from the Experience Sampling Method (ESM) , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[30]  G. Gigerenzer Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious , 2007 .

[31]  Erik Dane,et al.  Exploring Intuition and its Role in Managerial Decision Making , 2007 .

[32]  A. Dijksterhuis,et al.  A Theory of Unconscious Thought , 2006, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[33]  Darcia Narvaez,et al.  Integrative Ethical Education , 2006 .

[34]  Rick B. van Baaren,et al.  On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect , 2006, Science.

[35]  R. Cronje Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking , 2005, ACP Journal Club.

[36]  Jerker Denrell,et al.  Why most people disapprove of me: experience sampling in impression formation. , 2005, Psychological review.

[37]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition: Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence from Random Samples of Real-World Behavior , 2005 .

[38]  J. Haidt,et al.  Intuitive ethics: how innately prepared intuitions generate culturally variable virtues , 2004, Daedalus.

[39]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Music, Pandas, and Muggers: On the Affective Psychology of Value , 2004, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[40]  Laurie Hendren,et al.  The abc Group , 2004 .

[41]  J. Smetana,et al.  Integrative Ethical Education , 2004 .

[42]  R. Hogarth Deciding Analytically or Trusting your Intuition? The Advantages and Disadvantages of Analytic and Intuitive Thought , 2002 .

[43]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .

[44]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. , 2002 .

[45]  Lynn Hasher,et al.  Frequency processing: A twenty-five year perspective. , 2002 .

[46]  D. Myers Intuition: Its Powers and Perils , 2002 .

[47]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. , 2002, Psychological review.

[48]  J. Haidt The emotional dog and its rational tail: a social intuitionist approach to moral judgment. , 2001, Psychological review.

[49]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[50]  E. Sadler‐Smith,et al.  The Role of Intuition in Strategic Decision Making , 2009 .

[51]  Kenneth R. Hammond,et al.  Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice , 2000 .

[52]  K. Stanovich,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? , 2002 .

[53]  K. Fiedler Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases. , 2000, Psychological review.

[54]  C. G. Jung Psychological Types , 2000 .

[55]  W. Grove,et al.  Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis. , 2000, Psychological assessment.

[56]  Gary Klein,et al.  Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions , 2017 .

[57]  Steven K. Jones,et al.  The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision , 1999 .

[58]  C. Gettys,et al.  MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood. , 1999 .

[59]  S. Chaiken,et al.  Dual-process theories in social psychology , 1999 .

[60]  P. Todd,et al.  Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart , 1999 .

[61]  R. T. Hurlburt Randomly sampling thinking in the natural environment. , 1997, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[62]  S. Epstein,et al.  Individual differences in intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational thinking styles. , 1996, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[63]  Joseph E LeDoux The emotional brain , 1996 .

[64]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[65]  Sean A. Spence,et al.  Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain , 1995 .

[66]  D. Shanks IMPLICIT LEARNING AND TACIT KNOWLEDGE - AN ESSAY ON THE COGNITIVE UNCONSCIOUS - REBER,A , 1995 .

[67]  Surgical Scripts: Master Surgeons Think Aloud About 43 Common Surgical Problems , 1994 .

[68]  S. Epstein Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. , 1994, The American psychologist.

[69]  N. Charness,et al.  Expert Performance Its Structure and Acquisition , 2002 .

[70]  A. Reber Implicit learning and tacit knowledge , 1993 .

[71]  A. Isen,et al.  Positive affect and decision making. , 1993 .

[72]  G. Klein,et al.  Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods , 1993 .

[73]  G. Klein,et al.  A recognition-primed decision (RPD) model of rapid decision making. , 1993 .

[74]  J. Shanteau Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics , 1992 .

[75]  P. Lewicki,et al.  Nonconscious acquisition of information. , 1992, The American psychologist.

[76]  J. Shanteue COMPETENCE IN EXPERTS: THE ROLE OF TASK CHARACTERISTICS , 1992 .

[77]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[78]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Thinking too much: introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. , 1991, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[79]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager , 1990 .

[80]  G. Regehr,et al.  Intuition in the context of discovery , 1990, Cognitive Psychology.

[81]  M. Bazerman Judgment in Managerial Decision Making , 1990 .

[82]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  The disruptive effects of explaining attitudes: The moderating effect of knowledge about the attitude object , 1989 .

[83]  H. Simon,et al.  Skill in Chess , 1988 .

[84]  T. Pearson,et al.  Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[85]  J. Klayman,et al.  Confirmation, Disconfirmation, and Informa-tion in Hypothesis Testing , 1987 .

[86]  D. R. Lehman,et al.  Teaching reasoning. , 1987, Science.

[87]  D. Broadbent,et al.  Implicit and explicit knowledge in the control of complex systems , 1986 .

[88]  H. J. Einhorn,et al.  Accepting error to make less error. , 1986, Journal of personality assessment.

[89]  E. Schein Organizational Culture and Leadership: A Dynamic View , 1985 .

[90]  L Hasher,et al.  Automatic processing of fundamental information: the case of frequency of occurrence. , 1984, The American psychologist.

[91]  R. Hogarth Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. , 1981 .

[92]  Colin F. Camerer,et al.  General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models , 1981 .

[93]  R. Zajonc Feeling and thinking : Preferences need no inferences , 1980 .

[94]  J. Eccles The emotional brain. , 1980, Bulletin et memoires de l'Academie royale de medecine de Belgique.

[95]  L. Cohen,et al.  On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? , 1979, Cognition.

[96]  L. Hasher,et al.  Automatic and effortful processes in memory. , 1979 .

[97]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. , 1978 .

[98]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions , 1975 .

[99]  A. Scheflen,et al.  Inside Intuition , 1975, Dance Research Journal.

[100]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[101]  Kenneth R. Hammond,et al.  A note on intuitive vs analytic thinking , 1974 .

[102]  H. Simon,et al.  Perception in chess , 1973 .

[103]  M. Seligman On the generality of the laws of learning , 1970 .

[104]  Lewis R. Goldberg,et al.  Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. , 1970 .

[105]  R. Zajonc Attitudinal effects of mere exposure. , 1968 .

[106]  L. J. Chapman,et al.  Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. , 1967, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[107]  E. Streller [De gustibus (non) est disputandum]. , 1962, Rontgen- und Laboratoriumspraxis.

[108]  I. B. Myers The myers-briggs type indicator , 1962 .

[109]  Paul E. Meehl,et al.  Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence , 1996 .

[110]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[111]  E. Brunswik,et al.  The Conceptual Framework of Psychology , 1954 .