The short-term forecasting of evaporation duct height (EDH) based on ARIMA model

The short-term prediction of EDH time series plays an exceedingly important role in several fields such as communications, navigation and so on. In this paper, an application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for short-term forecasting of EDH time series is presented. In order to obtain the EDH, a body of sensors such as air temperature, relative humidity and pressure sensors were installed at different height based on the tower platform. EDH was calculated according to Debye theory and a log-squares curve fit. The comparison showed that the predicted EDH values were in good agreement with the measured values. It also indicates that ARIMA provides promising results for short-term prediction of EDH in the experiment.

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