Predicting daily flows in ungauged catchments: model regionalization from catchment descriptors at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina

Regionalization approaches to daily streamflow prediction are investigated for 13 catchments in the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of low complexity (six parameters). Model parameters are considered to represent the dynamic response characteristics (DRCs) of a catchment. It is demonstrated that all catchments within the region cannot be assumed to have a similar hydrological behaviour, and thence a regionalization approach considering differences in physical catchment descriptors (PCDs) is required. Such a regionalization approach can be regarded as a top-down method, in the sense that factors controlling parameter variability are identified first within the entire region under study, and then such information is exploited to predict runoff in a smaller sub-region. Regionalization results reveal that consideration of interrelation s between dependent variables, which here are the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model, can improve performance of regression as a regionalization method. Breaking the parameter correlation structure inherent in the model, and exploiting merely relationships between model parameters and PCDs (no matter how weakly related they are), can result in a significant decrease in regionalization performance. Also, high significance of regression between values of PCDs and DRCs does not guarantee a set of parameters with a good predictive power. When there is a reason to believe that, in the sense of hydrological behaviour, a gauged catchment resembles the ungauged catchment, then it may be worthwhile to adopt the entire set of calibrated parameters from the gauged catchment instead of deriving quantitative relationships between catchment descriptors and model parameters. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  D. Burn An appraisal of the “region of influence” approach to flood frequency analysis , 1990 .

[2]  Thomas A. McMahon,et al.  Physically based hydrologic modeling: 2. Is the concept realistic? , 1992 .

[3]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Data-based mechanistic modelling, generalised sensitivity and dominant mode analysis , 1999 .

[4]  Yeou-Koung Tung,et al.  Regionalization of unit hydrograph parameters: 1. Comparison of regression analysis techniques , 1997 .

[5]  Gary D. Tasker Comparing Methods of Hydrologic Regionalization , 1982 .

[6]  Murugesu Sivapalan,et al.  Scale issues in hydrological modelling: A review , 1995 .

[7]  Robert A. Vertessy,et al.  Predicting water yield from a mountain ash forest catchment using a terrain analysis based catchment model , 1993 .

[8]  K. Beven,et al.  Progress and directions in rainfall-runoff modelling , 1993 .

[9]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Recursive Estimation and Time-Series Analysis: An Introduction , 1984 .

[10]  Julia A. Jones,et al.  An improved methodology for predicting the daily hydrologic response of ungauged catchments , 1998 .

[11]  Peter C. Young,et al.  A recursive approach to time-series analysis for multi-variable systems , 1977 .

[12]  D. Post,et al.  Identification of relationships between catchment-scale hydrologic response and landscape attributes , 1996 .

[13]  Donald H. Burn,et al.  Flood frequency analysis for ungauged sites using a region of influence approach , 1994 .

[14]  Wayne T. Swank,et al.  Forest Hydrology and Ecology at Coweeta , 1988, Ecological Studies.

[15]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Predicting the daily streamflow of ungauged catchments in S.E. Australia by regionalising the parameters of a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model , 1999 .

[16]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CATCHMENT ATTRIBUTES AND HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS IN SMALL AUSTRALIAN MOUNTAIN ASH CATCHMENTS , 1996 .

[17]  Donald H. Burn,et al.  Estimation of hydrological parameters at ungauged catchments , 1993 .

[18]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Parallel Processes in Hydrology and Water Quality: A Unified Time‐Series Approach , 1992 .

[19]  Mike Acreman,et al.  Classification of drainage basins according to their physical characteristics; an application for flood frequency analysis in Scotland , 1986 .

[20]  G. Vandewiele,et al.  Monthly water balance of ungauged catchments obtained by geographical regionalization , 1995 .

[21]  David A. Woolhiser,et al.  Search for physically based Runoff model : A hydrologic El Dorado ? , 1996 .

[22]  P. R. Johnston,et al.  Parameter optimization for watershed models , 1976 .

[23]  P. Young,et al.  Time variable and state dependent modelling of non-stationary and nonlinear time series , 1993 .

[24]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Assessing uncertainties in hydrological response to climate at large scale , 1993 .

[25]  R. D. Black,et al.  Partial Area Contributions to Storm Runoff in a Small New England Watershed , 1970 .

[26]  V. Nguyen,et al.  A comparative study of regression based methods in regional flood frequency analysis , 1999 .

[27]  D. H. Pilgrim,et al.  Some problems in transferring hydrological relationships between small and large drainage basins and between regions , 1983 .

[28]  Maria Mimikou,et al.  Predicting the mean annual flood and flood quantiles for ungauged catchments in Greece , 1989 .

[29]  A. Jakeman,et al.  How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall‐runoff model? , 1993 .

[30]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  An assessment of the dynamic response characteristics of streamflow in the Balquhidder catchments , 1993 .

[31]  A. Jakeman,et al.  A comparison of metric and conceptual approaches in rainfall‐runoff modeling and its implications , 2001 .

[32]  Brian M. Reich,et al.  Unit hydrographs for catchments of different sizes and dissimilar regions , 1974 .

[33]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Performance of conceptual rainfall‐runoff models in low‐yielding ephemeral catchments , 1997 .

[34]  J. V. Sutcliffe,et al.  Regional flood frequency analysis in arid and semi-arid areas , 1992 .

[35]  S. Howarth,et al.  Relationships between dynamic response characteristics and physical descriptors of catchments in England and Wales , 1998 .

[36]  A. Jakeman,et al.  Computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two small upland catchments , 1990 .

[37]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[38]  M. Hutchinson A new procedure for gridding elevation and stream line data with automatic removal of spurious pits , 1989 .

[39]  B. Rajagopalan,et al.  Optimal parameter estimation for Muskingum routing with ungauged lateral inflow , 1995 .

[40]  P. Young,et al.  Computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two small upland catchments — Comment , 1991 .

[41]  Rory Nathan,et al.  Identification of homogeneous regions for the purposes of regionalisation , 1990 .

[42]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  From data and theory to environmental model: The case of rainfall runoff , 1994 .

[43]  K. Beven,et al.  A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology , 1979 .

[44]  Teemu Kokkonen,et al.  A semi-distributed approach to rainfall-runoff modelling--a case study in a snow affected catchment , 2001, Environ. Model. Softw..