Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israeli agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton

Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are expected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the “production function” approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel’s dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070–2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios; net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from −145 to −273%), but may increase under the moderate one (−43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (−240 and −173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.

[1]  Cynthia Rosenzweig,et al.  Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central US A simulation study , 1996 .

[2]  P. Pinter,et al.  CO2 enrichment and soil nitrogen effects on wheat evapotranspiration and water use efficiency. , 2000 .

[3]  C. Giupponi,et al.  Climate change in the Mediterranean: socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. , 2003 .

[4]  L. Korentajer,et al.  Use of climatic data for estimating nitrogen fertilizer requirements of dryland wheat , 1989, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[5]  Nava Haruvy.  Wastewater reuse—regional and economic considerations , 1998 .

[6]  Ana Iglesias,et al.  Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis , 2000 .

[7]  M. Semenov,et al.  USE OF A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS , 1997 .

[8]  Neil C. Turner,et al.  Further Progress in Crop Water Relations , 1996 .

[9]  J. Parikh,et al.  Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture , 1998 .

[10]  P J Reyenga,et al.  Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia. , 2001, Environment international.

[11]  J. Nagy,et al.  Growth and yield of cotton in response to a free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) environment , 1994 .

[12]  J. Doorenbos,et al.  Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements , 1977 .

[13]  David Yates,et al.  An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Economy of Egypt , 1998 .

[14]  U. Kafkafi,et al.  The Effect of supplemental irrigation and nitrogen fertilisation on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) , 1978, Irrigation Science.

[15]  R. Mitchell,et al.  Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: wheat. , 2000 .

[16]  K. R. Reddy,et al.  Carbon dioxide enrichment and temperature effects on cotton canopy photosynthesis, transpiration, and water-use efficiency☆ , 1995 .

[17]  William D. Nordhaus,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy: The impact of climate variation on US agriculture , 1999 .

[18]  B. McCarl,et al.  A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture , 1995 .

[19]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Impacts of global climate change on Mediterranean agrigulture: Current methodologies and future directions , 1997 .

[20]  Linda O. Mearns,et al.  Spatial Scale Effects of Climate Scenarios on Simulated Cotton Production in the Southeastern U.S.A. , 2003 .

[21]  B. McCarl,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy: Economic effects of climate change on US agriculture , 1999 .

[22]  K. R. Reddy,et al.  Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity , 2000 .

[23]  M. Schütz,et al.  Growth and yield responses of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Minaret) to elevated CO2 and water limitation. , 2001, Environmental pollution.

[24]  P. Berliner,et al.  A Comparative Study of Root Distribution and Water Extraction Efficiency by Wheat Grown Under High‐ and Low‐Frequency Irrigation1 , 1985 .

[25]  C. J. Phene,et al.  Calgos, a version of gossym adapted for irrigated cotton. I. Drip irrigation, soil water transport and root growth , 1992 .

[26]  J. Amir,et al.  Wheat production in an arid environment. 1. Water-use efficiency, as affected by management practices☆ , 1991 .

[27]  B. McCarl,et al.  The benefits to Mexican agriculture of an El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) early warning system , 2003 .

[28]  Krishan Kumar.  CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF INDIAN AGRICULTURE , 2009 .

[29]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture , 1998 .

[30]  K. R. Reddy,et al.  Interactions of CO2 enrichment and temperature on cotton growth and leaf characteristics , 1998 .

[31]  James E. Neumann,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy: Frontmatter , 1999 .

[32]  J. Amthor.  Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration , 2001 .

[33]  James W. Jones,et al.  Global climate change and US agriculture , 1990, Nature.

[34]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[35]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[36]  P. Berliner,et al.  Effects of Moisture Stress on Nitrogen Fertilizer Response in Dryland Wheat , 1988 .