Interpreting the Evidence on Life Cycle Skill Formation

Abstract This paper presents economic models of child development that capture the essence of recent findings from the empirical literature on skill formation. The goal of this essay is to provide a theoretical framework for interpreting the evidence from a vast empirical literature, for guiding the next generation of empirical studies, and for formulating policy. Central to our analysis is the concept that childhood has more than one stage. We formalize the concepts of self-productivity and complementarity of human capital investments and use them to explain the evidence on skill formation. Together, they explain why skill begets skill through a multiplier process. Skill formation is a life cycle process. It starts in the womb and goes on throughout life. Families play a role in this process that is far more important than the role of schools. There are multiple skills and multiple abilities that are important for adult success. Abilities are both inherited and created, and the traditional debate about nature versus nurture is scientifically obsolete. Human capital investment exhibits both self-productivity and complementarity. Skill attainment at one stage of the life cycle raises skill attainment at later stages of the life cycle (self-productivity). Early investment facilitates the productivity of later investment (complementarity). Early investments are not productive if they are not followed up by later investments (another aspect of complementarity). This complementarity explains why there is no equity-efficiency trade-off for early investment. The returns to investing early in the life cycle are high. Remediation of inadequate early investments is difficult and very costly as a consequence of both self-productivity and complementarity.

[1]  J. Heckman Accounting for the Effect of Schooling and Abilities in the Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Achievement Test Scores , 2005 .

[2]  G. Robinson,et al.  Sociogenomics: social life in molecular terms , 2005, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[3]  F. E. Principles of Economics , 1890, Nature.

[4]  A. Reynolds,et al.  Long-term effects of an early childhood intervention on educational achievement and juvenile arrest: A 15-year follow-up of low-income children in public schools. , 2001, JAMA.

[5]  Lance Lochner,et al.  Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents , 1998 .

[6]  Joseph G. Altonji,et al.  The Effects of Family Characteristics on the Return to Education , 1996 .

[7]  School Quality and the Longer-Term Effects of Head Start , 1998 .

[8]  James J. Heckman,et al.  The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males , 2001, Journal of Political Economy.

[9]  Allen L. Schirm,et al.  The Quantum Opportunity Program Demonstration: Implementation and Short-Term Impacts. Washington, DC: Mathematica Policy Research , 2003 .

[10]  F. Hayek,et al.  The Pure Theory of Capital , 1941 .

[11]  J. Tyson,et al.  Results at age 8 years of early intervention for low-birth-weight premature infants. The Infant Health and Development Program. , 1997, JAMA.

[12]  A. Hillis Invited Comments , 2022 .

[13]  L. Lochner Education and Default Incentives with Government Student Loan Programs , 2003 .

[14]  P. Samuelson Complementarity-An Essay on the 40th Anniversary of the Hicks-Allen Revolution in Demand Theory , 1974 .

[15]  H. Gintis,et al.  The Determinants of Earnings: A Behavioral Approach , 2001 .

[16]  Christopher R. Taber The Rising College Premium in the Eighties: Return to College or Return to Unobserved Ability? , 2001 .

[17]  Jane Waldfogel,et al.  Inequality in Preschool Education and School Readiness , 2004 .

[18]  J. Flynn Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: What IQ tests really measure. , 1987 .

[19]  G. Becker,et al.  Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition , 1993 .

[20]  C. Ruhm,et al.  Does prekindergarten improve school preparation and performance? Economics of Education Review, , . , 2007 .

[21]  R. Edwards,et al.  INDIVIDUAL TRAITS AND ORGANIZATIONAL INCENTIVES: WHAT MAKES A "GOOD" WORKER? , 1976 .

[22]  A. Reynolds,et al.  Paths of effects of early childhood intervention on educational attainment and delinquency: a confirmatory analysis of the Chicago Child-Parent Centers. , 2004, Child development.

[23]  Mark Huggett,et al.  The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies , 1993 .

[24]  H. Garber The Milwaukee Project Preventing Mental Retardation in Children at Risk , 1988 .

[25]  Krishna B. Kumar,et al.  Higher education subsidies and heterogeneity: a dynamic analysis , 2003 .

[26]  M. Rutter,et al.  The effects of global severe privation on cognitive competence: extension and longitudinal follow-up. English and Romanian Adoptees Study Team. , 2000, Child development.

[27]  J. Heckman,et al.  Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[28]  J. Heckman,et al.  The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post-Secondary Schooling , 2002 .

[29]  S. Rao Aiyagari,et al.  Efficient Investment in Children , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[30]  Peter Siegelman,et al.  Allocating Resources Among Prisons And Social Programs In The Battle Against Crime , 1998, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[31]  Joseph E. Stiglitz,et al.  The Theory of "Screening," Education, and the Distribution of Income , 1975 .

[32]  E. Knudsen Sensitive Periods in the Development of the Brain and Behavior , 2004, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience.

[33]  R. Spady,et al.  Factors Affecting the Output and Quit Propensities of Production Workers , 1987 .

[34]  Gary S Becker,et al.  Front matter, Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education , 1965 .

[35]  Ananth Seshadri,et al.  Equity and efficiency effects of redistributive policies , 2004 .

[36]  J. Heckman Doing It Right: Job Training and Education. , 1999 .

[37]  F. Knight Diminishing Returns from Investment , 1944, Journal of Political Economy.

[38]  R. Behrman,et al.  Home visiting: recent program evaluations--analysis and recommendations. , 1999, The Future of children.

[39]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part I: Causal Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation , 2007 .

[40]  David A. Long,et al.  Evaluating the Benefits and Costs of the Job Corps , 1981 .

[41]  Greg J. Duncan,et al.  The Contributions of Hard Skills and Socio-emotional Behavior to School Readiness (WP-05-01) , 2005 .

[42]  Joseph P. Tierney Making a Difference. An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters. , 1995 .

[43]  H. Blossfeld,et al.  Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries , 1994 .

[44]  C. Belfield,et al.  Lifetime effects: The HighScope Perry Preschool study through age 40 (Monographs of the HighScope Educational Research Foundation No. , 2005 .

[45]  John T. Bruer,et al.  The myth of the first three years : a new understanding of early brain development and lifelong learning , 1999 .

[46]  R. Jagannathan,et al.  Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving , 1994 .

[47]  H. Kraemer,et al.  Enhancing the cognitive outcomes of low birth weight, premature infants: for whom is the intervention most effective? , 1992, Pediatrics.

[48]  D. Olds Prenatal and Infancy Home Visiting by Nurses: From Randomized Trials to Community Replication , 2002, Prevention Science.

[49]  S. Pinker The language instinct : how the mind creates language , 1995 .

[50]  David Card The Causal Effect of Education on Learning , 1999 .

[51]  Z. Griliches Estimating the Returns to Schooling: Some Econometric Problems. , 1977 .

[52]  Bruce A. Weinberg An Incentive Model of the Effect of Parental Income on Children , 2001, Journal of Political Economy.

[53]  Xuejuan Su The allocation of public funds in a hierarchical educational system , 2004 .

[54]  R. Klaus,et al.  From 3 to 20: The early training project , 1982 .

[55]  J. Heckman Policies to Foster Human Capital , 2000 .

[56]  Carl Bereiter,et al.  Developmental Health and the Wealth of Nations: Social, Biological, and Educational Dynamics , 2000 .

[57]  William T. Gormley,et al.  Childhood Programs and Practices in the First Decade of Life: Small Miracles in Tulsa: The Effects of Universal Pre-K on Cognitive Development , 2010 .

[58]  E. Adam Investing in our children: What we know and don't know about the costs and benefits of early childhood interventions: Children and Youth Services Review , 1999 .

[59]  David Card Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems , 2000 .

[60]  Marcus M. Stanley College Education and the Midcentury GI Bills , 2003 .

[61]  Arthur J. Rolnick,et al.  Early Childhood Development: Economic Development with a High Public Return , 2003 .

[62]  C. Ramey,et al.  Early Intervention for High-Risk Children: The Carolina Early Intervention Program. , 1990 .

[63]  D. Neal,et al.  Further Evidence on the Effects of Catholic Secondary Schooling , 2000 .

[64]  D. Phillips,et al.  From Neurons to Neighborhoods: The Science of Early Childhood Development , 2000 .

[65]  Robert J. Willis,et al.  Chapter 10 Wage determinants: A survey and reinterpretation of human capital earnings functions , 1986 .

[66]  Byron W. Brown,et al.  Schooling in Capitalist America: Educational Reform and the Contradictions of Economic Life , 1977 .

[67]  Janet Currie Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 15, Number 2—Spring 2001—Pages 213–238 Early Childhood Education Programs , 2022 .

[68]  Casey B. Mulligan,et al.  Parental Priorities and Economic Inequality , 1998 .

[69]  J. Heckman,et al.  Human Capital Policy , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[70]  M. Spence Job Market Signaling , 1973 .

[71]  Peter Secretan,et al.  Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale: Manual for the Third Revision Form L-M , 1963, Mental Health.

[72]  Christopher R. Taber,et al.  Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools , 2000, Journal of Political Economy.

[73]  J. Heckman Lessons from the Bell Curve , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[74]  Gary Orfield,et al.  Money, Equity, and College Access , 1992 .

[75]  Gary S. Becker,et al.  An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergenerational Mobility , 1979, Journal of Political Economy.

[76]  Duncan C. Thomas,et al.  Longer Term Effects of Head Start , 2000 .

[77]  Thomas J. Kane College Entry by Blacks since 1970: The Role of College Costs, Family Background, and the Returns to Education , 1994, Journal of Political Economy.

[78]  Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion , 2003 .

[79]  I. Fisher Mathematical Investigations in the Theory of Value and Prices , 1893 .

[80]  J. Heckman,et al.  The Importance of Noncognitive Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program , 2001 .

[81]  David K. Cohen,et al.  Schooling in Capitalist America. , 1977 .

[82]  I. Gottesman,et al.  PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Article SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS MODIFIES HERITABILITY OF IQ , 2022 .

[83]  J. Heckman,et al.  Removing the Veil of Ignorance in Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Social Policies , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[84]  S. Pinker,et al.  The Language Instinct: How the Mind Creates Language , 1994 .

[85]  J. Laitner Random earnings differences, lifetime liquidity constraints, and altruistic intergenerational transfers , 1992 .

[86]  C. Herrera,et al.  Mentoring School-Age Children: Relationship Development in Community-Based and School-Based Programs. , 2000 .

[87]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents , 1998 .

[88]  M. Meaney,et al.  Maternal care, gene expression, and the transmission of individual differences in stress reactivity across generations. , 2001, Annual review of neuroscience.

[89]  Thomas J. Kane College Cost, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of College Entry , 1996 .

[90]  J. Heckman,et al.  Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies? , 2004 .

[91]  Christopher R. Taber,et al.  Estimation of Educational Borrowing Constraints Using Returns to Schooling , 2004, Journal of Political Economy.

[92]  Werner Hildenbrand,et al.  Contributions to mathematical economics in honor of Gérard Debreu , 1986 .

[93]  Allison Sidle Fuligni,et al.  Early childhood intervention programs: What about the family? , 2000 .

[94]  K. Frasch,et al.  Consequences of growing up poor , 1999 .

[95]  Cheri A. Vogel,et al.  Making a Difference in the Lives of Infants and Toddlers and Their Families: The Impacts of Early Head Start. Volumes I-III: Final Technical Report [and] Appendixes [and] Local Contributions to Understanding the Programs and Their Impacts. , 2002 .

[96]  Richard Clarida Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations , 1987 .

[97]  Thomas J. Kane The Price of Admission: Rethinking How Americans Pay for College , 1999 .

[98]  M. Rutter,et al.  Developmental catch-up, and deficit, following adoption after severe global early privation. English and Romanian Adoptees (ERA) Study Team. , 1998, Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines.

[99]  P. O’Campo,et al.  Securing the Future: Investing in Children from Birth to College , 2002 .

[100]  E. Zigler Handbook of Early Childhood Intervention edited by Jack P. Shonkoff , 2000 .

[101]  G. Duncan,et al.  Child well-being in an era of welfare reform: the sensitivity of transitions in development to policy change. , 2005, Developmental psychology.

[102]  Lynn Nadel,et al.  Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science , 2003 .

[103]  C. Meghir,et al.  Assessing the Effect of Schooling on Earnings Using a Social Experiment , 1999 .

[104]  Dale L. Johnson Primary Prevention of Behavior Problems in Young Children: The Houston Parent-Child Development Center. , 1988 .

[105]  F. STATIONARY MONETARY EQUILIBRIUM WITH A CONTINUUM OF INDEPENDENTLY , 2001 .

[106]  G. Duncan,et al.  Using Sibling Samples To Assess the Effect of Childhood Family Income on Completed Schooling. JCPR Working Paper. , 2000 .

[107]  Richard H. Price,et al.  14 ounces of prevention : a casebook for practitioners , 1988 .

[108]  K. Arrow,et al.  Meritocracy and Economic Inequality , 2001 .

[109]  Roland Bénabou,et al.  Unequal Societies: Income Distribution and the Social Contract , 2000 .

[110]  E. Miller,et al.  Headache , 1980 .

[111]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males , 1998, Journal of Political Economy.

[112]  James R. Chiesa,et al.  Investing in Our Children: What We Know and Don't Know About the Costs and Benefits of Early Childhood Interventions , 1998 .

[113]  J. Heckman,et al.  The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs , 1999 .

[114]  J. Heckman,et al.  Understanding the Role of Cognitive Ability in Accounting for the Recent Rise in the Economic Return to Education , 1998 .

[115]  W. Moskoff Pronatalist Policies in Romania , 1980, Economic Development and Cultural Change.

[116]  R. Sternberg Beyond IQ: A Triarchic Theory of Human Intelligence , 1984 .

[117]  Jack Schechtman An income fluctuation problem , 1976 .

[118]  W. Barnett,et al.  A Benefit Cost Analysis of the Abecedarian Early Childhood Intervention. , 2002 .

[119]  R. Herrnstein,et al.  The bell curve : intelligence and class structure in American life , 1995 .

[120]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation , 2010, Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society.

[121]  J. Lally The Syracuse University Family Development Research Program: Long-Range Impact of an Early Intervention with Low-Income Children and Their Families. , 1987 .

[122]  Ralph Stinebrickner,et al.  Time-use and college outcomes , 2004 .

[123]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Labor Market Discrimination and Racial Differences in Premarket Factors* , 2003, The Journal of Law and Economics.

[124]  J. S. Fuerst,et al.  Chicago Experience with an Early Childhood Program , 1993 .

[125]  H. Barnes,et al.  Significant Benefits: The High/Scope Perry Preschool Study Through Age 27 , 1993 .

[126]  G. Walker,et al.  Anatomy of a Demonstration: The Summer Training and Education Program (STEP) from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts. , 1992 .

[127]  Douglas R. Powell,et al.  Parent education as early childhood intervention : emerging directions in theory, research and practice , 1988 .

[128]  Y. Ben-Porath The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings , 1967, Journal of Political Economy.

[129]  J. Heckman,et al.  The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior , 2006, Journal of Labor Economics.

[130]  Kenneth I. Wolpin,et al.  The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints On Educational Attainment , 1999 .

[131]  J. Heckman Policies to Foster Human Capital , 1999 .

[132]  M. Kosters Financing College Tuition: Government Policies and Educational Priorities , 1999 .

[133]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part II: Using the Marginal Treatment Effect to Organize Alternative Econometric Estimators to Evaluate Social Programs, and to Forecast their Effects in New Environments , 2007 .

[134]  J. Laitner Household Bequest Behaviour and the National Distribution of Wealth , 1979 .