The determinants of career decisions of Air Force pilots

Abstract : The present study analyses the individual career decisions of Air Force pilots. The inability of the Air Force to retain adequate numbers of qualified pilots in recent years motivated this study. This thesis presents a model of career choice based upon individual utility maximization. The individual is assumed to maximize his utility between continuing as an Air Force pilot and moving to the private sector. Private sector employment may be in either the airline industry or some other segment of the economy. A utility-maximizing choice is made in each discrete time period. The data used in the estimation of this model comes from officer personnel records for pilots who began service between 1968 and 1972. Their individual characteristics were combined with the appropriate economic factors in each year to model their choices. An error components specification with an equicorrelated correlation matrix was used to estimate a multivariate probit model. Likelihood ratio tests with an independent multivariate probit model conclusively rejected the independent probit model. The results of the estimations are consistent with the theoretical model presented. The rate of airline hires has a negative effect on retention. The real wage level of Air Force pilots and their pay in relation to civilian pilots has a positive effect on the rate of retention and the individual probability of remaining in the Air Force. The rate of unemployment also has a positive effect on the probability of remaining in the Air Force. (Author)