Real-Time, Multi-Factors-Coupled Early Warning Model in Water Transportation Safety

Water transportation system is a complex person-boat-environment-management system. To improve the overall security of the system, it appears very important to strengthen the early warning management of the water transport system. However, the system's security situations were different under the diverse state, and each influencing factor coupled with others has more impact on overall system security. To deal with incomplete, imprecise, or uncertain knowledge and information's impacts on security warning, the theory of Bayesian Network was chosen to build the multi-factors coupled Bayesian early warning model from the overall system-wide function. According to real-time collection information on national environment, navigation order, and ship operation status, this system can predict the safety status of water traffic in real time to effectively achieve the early-warning function.