Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward.- The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics.- The Frequency Theory of Probability.- Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory.- More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble.- Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence.- Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples.- Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures.- Conclusions and Queries.

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