COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE CONTAINER PORT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST: YEAR ONE FINAL REPORT

A framework is presented that links financial, economic and environmental issues facing development of container ports along the US East Coast. First, container trends and issues are summarized. Then, key elements of the framework are outlined. These elements include (1) a national container port demand simulation model, (2) a container terminal investment feasibility (discounted cash flow (DCF)) model, and (3) an examination of potential, generic environmental issues at ports and their mitigation. The framework is intended to establish concepts and methods that will allow for the eventual estimation of the size and distribution of economic benefits and costs to (1) a container terminal operator, (2) state residents and (3) the nation due to a variety of policy issues (e.g., container port development; changes in environmental regulations, energy costs, or sources or markets for containerized goods; temporary disruptions at facilities, etc.). Example, simplified applications are given to illustrate the concepts and methods used in the framework, the many sources of uncertainty faced and alternative approaches for dealing with uncertainty and risks posed at various levels. Approaches used include use of simulation techniques, DCF, sensitivity analyses, "worst case" analysis, Monte Carlo methods and dynamic, discrete event model. The framework, methods and results given in this report are primarily illustrative and not intended to be conclusive. Analyses during Year Two of the project will apply, extend and refine many of the estimates given in this Year One report. A more definitive analysis, e.g., for a proposed terminal or for other state, regional or national policy issues, requires the availability of specific marked analyses and terminal development plans and costs much beyond the information and resources available for the Year One Report.

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