-1-Implementing a new dose-response model for estimating infection probability of 1 Campylobacter based on the key events dose-response framework

-2-Abstract Understanding the dose-response relationship between pathogenic bacteria 12 infection probability is a key factor for appropriate risk assessment of foodborne pathogens. 13 The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a novel mechanistic dose- 14 response model for Campylobacter jejuni and simulate the underlying mechanism of 15 foodborne illness during digestion. Bacterial behavior in the human gastrointestinal 16 environment, including gastric reductions, transition to intestines, and invasion to intestinal 17 tissues, was described using a Bayesian statistical model based on the reported 18 experimental results of each process while considering physical food types (liquid or solid) 19 and host age (young or elderly). Combining the models in each process, the relationship 20 between pathogen intake and the cell invasion probability of C. jejuni was estimated and 21 compared with reported epidemiological dose-response relationships. Taking food types 22 into account, estimations of the cell invasion probability of C. jejuni successfully described 23 the reported dose-response relationships from substantial accidents. The developed 24 calculation framework is thus potentially applicable to other pathogens to quantify the 25 dose-response relationship from experimental data obtained from digestion.

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