Will transitional ozone nonattainment work

In 1997, EPA promulgated a new 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. In 1998, the Agency promulgated a rule that called for twenty-two States and the District of Columbia to reduce the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}) within their boundaries to below EPA-specified ozone season budgets for NO{sub x}. The purpose of this latter NO{sub x} SIP call rule was, according to EPA, to help downwind States attain and maintain compliance with both the old 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the new 8-hour NAAQS. Although EPA said that its SIP call rule was not intended to be an attainment strategy, the Agency indicated that it believes many of the areas that are expected to be nonattainment for the 8-hour NAAQS will come into attainment as a result of implementation of the NO{sub x} SIP call. In addition, EPA believes that other areas may be able to attain the 8-hour NAAQS with minimal additional local controls after the NO{sub x} SIP call rule is implemented. Based on these beliefs, the Agency has created a classification of transitional that will be available to many areas that do not attain the 8-hour ozone standard. EPA is offering incentives to areasmore » that opt in to the transitional status. These incentives include reduced planning requirements and less stringent mandates for their conformity and new source review programs. In order to quality for the transitional classification, however, an area will have to submit a SIP implementing the NO{sub x} SIP call rule, if applicable, and adopt any other measures needed for attainment of the 8-hour NAAQS earlier than would otherwise be required. This paper examines the legal basis for the transitional classification. It also assesses the likelihood that the program EPA has developed for transitional nonattainment areas will produce attainment in these areas.« less