Automotive modal lock-in: a theoretical framework for the analysis of peak car and beyond with special reference to Australia

ABSTRACT There remains considerable debate over whether the phenomenon of peak car, a levelling off and in some cases a fall in per-capita automotive travel, will continue and if so, the extent and speed with which it may intensify. This study’s contribution is to introduce an analytical framework for explaining the timing of peak car and of its likely future development using Australia and US data. Two self-reinforcing opposing forces which become determinants of peak car and its timing are described. Growth of automotive dependence is explained in terms of an interrelated mesh of socio-economic forces delaying the advent of peak car through a lock-in of the automotive mode in urban environments. A countervailing set of self-reinforcing socio-economic forces – including congestion, urban infilling, social and environmental costs of the automobile – is shown to be operating to reduce automotive dependence. Peak car can therefore be seen as a product of the concurrence of the overreach of the automotive mode’s path dependent growth with its attendant accumulation of negative externalities and high cost, and emerging socio-economic and demographic trends. The mutually reinforcing nature of these coinciding factors suggests further future lowering of growth of automotive usage and ownership.