Evaluation of Value-at-Risk for short term investment by using Cornish-Fisher expansion

The article deals with value-at-risk (VaR), by using method, which does not require defining distribution of return of the financial instrument. We used Cornish-Fisher expansion, which allows evaluating the quintiles and VaR of the explored return distribution only by knowing its characteristics of skewness and kurtosis. This method allows achieving sufficient accuracy of VaR even from relatively small amount of experimental data of return. The empirical evaluation of VaR, by applying Cornish-Fisher expansion, is performed by using hourly trading data of EUR/USD long position

[1]  Philippe Jorion Value at Risk , 2001 .

[2]  K. Dowd Measuring Market Risk , 2002 .

[3]  C. Peake Value at Risk for Asset Managers , 1999 .

[4]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  Large returns, conditional correlation and portfolio diversification: a value-at-risk approach , 2001 .

[5]  Phhilippe Jorion Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk , 2000 .

[6]  Virgilijus Sakalauskas,et al.  Short-Term Investment Risk Measurement Using VaR and CVaR , 2006, International Conference on Computational Science.

[7]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[8]  James R. Wilson,et al.  Correlation-induction techniques for estimating quantiles in simulation experiments , 1995, WSC '95.

[9]  P. J. Thomson,et al.  Non-parametric estimation of historical volatility , 2004 .

[10]  Jon Danielsson,et al.  Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns , 2000 .

[11]  Thomas Lux The Limiting Extremal Behaviour of Speculative Returns: An Analysis of Intra-Daily Data From the Frankfurt Stock Exchange , 1998 .

[12]  Benton E. Gup,et al.  The New Basel Capital Accord , 2004 .

[13]  R. Fisher,et al.  148: Moments and Cumulants in the Specification of Distributions. , 1938 .

[14]  Pierre Giot,et al.  Market risk models for intraday data , 2005 .

[15]  M. Yor,et al.  The Fine Structure of Asset Retums : An Empirical Investigation ' , 2006 .

[16]  J.E. McNeill,et al.  Indirect estimation of cycle time quantiles from discrete event simulation models using the Cornish-Fisher expansion , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 2003..