Note: Modeling Future Record Performances in Athletics

In their article in the December 2008 issue of JASA, Einmahl and Magnus (E-M; 2008) used an extreme-value distribution to predict ultimate world records in track & field events. They also used this method to classify the highest-quality records; that is, records unlikely to be surpassed soon. Unfortunately, the E-M method predicts both ultimate record performances, and the highest-quality records, that are largely at odds with the facts. To demonstrate the problem with the E-M model, I give two examples from each of men's and women's track and field events.