Evaluation of Seven Different Atmospheric Reanalysis Products in the Arctic

AbstractAtmospheric reanalyses depend on a mix of observations and model forecasts. In data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, the reanalysis solution is more dependent on the model structure, assumptions, and data assimilation methods than in data-rich regions. Applications such as the forcing of ice–ocean models are sensitive to the errors in reanalyses. Seven reanalysis datasets for the Arctic region are compared over the 30-yr period 1981–2010: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 (NCEP-R1) and NCEP–U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-R2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25). Emphasis is placed on variables not observed directly including surface fluxes and precipitation and their trends. The monthly averaged surface tem...

[1]  Jeffrey S. Whitaker,et al.  Feasibility of a 100-Year Reanalysis Using Only Surface Pressure Data , 2006 .

[2]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses , 1998 .

[3]  D. Bromwich,et al.  A tropospheric assessment of the ERA‐40, NCEP, and JRA‐25 global reanalyses in the polar regions , 2007 .

[4]  Keith M. Hines,et al.  Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica , 2000 .

[5]  P. Jones,et al.  Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 , 2006 .

[6]  Mark C. Serreze,et al.  Recent changes in tropospheric water vapor over the Arctic as assessed from radiosondes and atmospheric reanalyses , 2010 .

[7]  L. Haimberger,et al.  Recent Arctic warming vertical structure contested , 2008, Nature.

[8]  Q. Fu,et al.  Arctic warming aloft is data set dependent , 2008, Nature.

[9]  Xue Wei,et al.  Reanalysis without Radiosondes Using Ensemble Data Assimilation , 2004 .

[10]  Ian Simmonds,et al.  Erroneous Arctic Temperature Trends in the ERA-40 Reanalysis: A Closer Look , 2011 .

[11]  J. Hansen,et al.  GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE , 2010 .

[12]  W. Collins,et al.  The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation , 2001 .

[13]  P. Thorne.  Arctic tropospheric warming amplification? , 2008, Nature.

[14]  David Carlson,et al.  High-latitude ocean and sea ice surface fluxes: requirements and challenges for climate research , 2012 .

[15]  Ricardo Todling,et al.  The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0 , 2008 .

[16]  S. Saha,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System , 2006 .

[17]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[18]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[19]  E. Hunke,et al.  An Elastic–Viscous–Plastic Model for Sea Ice Dynamics , 1996 .

[20]  J. Walsh,et al.  Arctic Cloud Fraction and Radiative Fluxes in Atmospheric Reanalyses , 2009 .

[21]  Donald J. Cavalieri,et al.  Deriving long‐term time series of sea ice cover from satellite passive‐microwave multisensor data sets , 1999 .

[22]  Xiquan Dong,et al.  Evaluation and Intercomparison of Cloud Fraction and Radiative Fluxes in Recent Reanalyses over the Arctic Using BSRN Surface Observations , 2012 .

[23]  D. A. Rothrock,et al.  Modeling Global Sea Ice with a Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Model in Generalized Curvilinear Coordinates , 2003 .

[24]  R. Lindsay.  Temporal Variability of the Energy Balance of Thick Arctic Pack Ice , 1998 .

[25]  D. Bromwich,et al.  Strong Trends in the Skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP–NCAR Reanalyses in the High and Midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958–2001* , 2004 .

[26]  Ron Kwok,et al.  Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume , 2011 .

[27]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP reanalyses. Technical note , 1996 .

[28]  Uang,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis , 2010 .

[29]  Michael G. Bosilovich,et al.  Evaluation of Global Precipitation in Reanalyses , 2008 .

[30]  S. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-25 Reanalysis , 2007 .

[31]  R. Krishfield,et al.  Atmospheric forcing validation for modeling the central Arctic , 2007 .

[32]  W. Campbell,et al.  Determination of sea ice parameters with the NIMBUS 7 SMMR , 1984 .

[33]  Yongjiu Dai,et al.  Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations , 2008 .

[34]  P. Jones,et al.  The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project , 2009 .

[35]  Jochem Marotzke,et al.  Arctic sea‐ice evolution as modeled by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model , 2013 .

[36]  Michael Steele,et al.  Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend , 2008 .

[37]  M. Bosilovich,et al.  The Moisture Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA , 2011 .

[38]  A. Barrett,et al.  Northern High-Latitude Precipitation as Depicted by Atmospheric Reanalyses and Satellite Retrievals , 2005 .

[39]  R. Lindsay.  New Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record , 2010 .

[40]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis for Climate , 2002 .

[41]  M. Holland,et al.  Global atmospheric forcing data for Arctic ice-ocean modeling , 2007 .

[42]  M. Kanamitsu,et al.  NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2) , 2002 .

[43]  M. Winton,et al.  A Reformulated Three-Layer Sea Ice Model , 2000 .

[44]  Michael G. Bosilovich,et al.  The Energy Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA , 2012 .

[45]  Igor I. Mokhov,et al.  Climatology of Total Cloudiness in the Arctic: An Intercomparison of Observations and Reanalyses , 2012 .

[46]  Nils Wedi,et al.  Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU, ERA-40, and NCEP//NCAR analyses of surface air temperature , 2004 .