Improving the Ocean Initialization of Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Models Using Feature-Based Data Assimilation

Abstract Coupled hurricane–ocean forecast models require proper initialization of the ocean thermal structure. Here, a new feature-based (F-B) ocean initialization procedure in the GFDL/University of Rhode Island (URI) coupled hurricane prediction system is presented to account for spatial and temporal variability of mesoscale oceanic features in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Loop Current (LC), Loop Current eddies [i.e., warm-core rings (WCRs)], and cold-core rings (CCRs). Using only near-real-time satellite altimetry for the “SHA-assimilated” case, the LC, a single WCR, and a single CCR are assimilated into NAVOCEANO’s Global Digitized Environmental Model (GDEM) ocean temperature and salinity climatology along with satellite-derived daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from 15 September 2005 to produce a more realistic three-dimensional temperature field valid on the model initialization date (15 September 2005). For the “fully assimilated” case, both near-real-time altimetry and real-time in sit...

[1]  Douglas Volgenau Hurricane Heat Potential of the Gulf of Mexico , 1972 .

[2]  H. Hurlburt,et al.  A Numerical Study of Loop Current Intrusions and Eddy Shedding , 1980 .

[3]  J. Price,et al.  Upper Ocean Response to a Hurricane , 1981 .

[4]  R. Rotunno,et al.  An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones [presentation] , 1985 .

[5]  Kerry Emanuel,et al.  An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance , 1986 .

[6]  W. Teague,et al.  A Comparison Between the Generalized Digital Environmental Model and Levitus climatologies , 1990 .

[7]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Upper ocean response to Hurricane Gilbert , 1992 .

[8]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation , 1994 .

[9]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Dynamics of the Brazil‐Malvinas Confluence based on inverted echo sounders and altimetry , 1996 .

[10]  Keith Haines,et al.  Altimetric assimilation with water property conservation , 1996 .

[11]  S. Levitus,et al.  Objective analyses of temperature and salinity for the world ocean on a 1/4° grid , 1997 .

[12]  G. Mellor USERS GUIDE for A THREE-DIMENSIONAL, PRIMITIVE EQUATION, NUMERICAL OCEAN MODEL , 1998 .

[13]  Kerry A. Emanuel,et al.  Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity , 1999, Nature.

[14]  I. Ginis,et al.  Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane-Ocean Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on Hurricane Intensity , 2000 .

[15]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal , 2000 .

[16]  Charlie N. Barron,et al.  The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) , 2002 .

[17]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Ocean thermal structure monitoring could aid in the intensity forecast of tropical cyclones , 2003 .

[18]  Joseph J. Cione,et al.  Sea Surface Temperature Variability in Hurricanes: Implications with Respect to Intensity Change , 2003 .

[19]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) , 2005 .

[20]  S. Lord,et al.  Ocean Data Assimilation and Initialization Procedure for the Coupled GFDL/URI Hurricane Prediction System , 2005 .

[21]  Using AXBTs to improve the performance of coupled hurricane-ocean models , 2006 .

[22]  R. Bleck,et al.  Global Ocean Prediction with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model , 2009 .

[23]  Remy Baraille,et al.  The HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) data assimilative system , 2007 .

[24]  T. Marchok,et al.  The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance , 2007 .

[25]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes , 2008 .