Belief networks in construction simulation

A method for automatically improving the performance of construction operations was developed by the integration of computer simulation and belief networks. The simulation model is used to represent the operation and to determine the effect that changes in resource configuration have on the model's performance. The belief network provides diagnostic analysis of the performance and recommendations for changes to the model. Modifications to the simulation model include selection of alternative resources and resource quantities. The method is based upon the assumption that ultimate objectives, such as lower costs or a shorter project duration, will result from efficient use of resources. Therefore, the improvement process is focused upon resource performance instead of cost or duration. The approach is iterative, and provides the modeler with results even if user-defined constraints related to performance limits are not met.

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