Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico

The purpose of this study was to estimate precipitation (P), reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation deficit (PD=P-ETo) and relative crop yield reduction (YR) for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayaguez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Precipitation and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reduction was estimated from a water stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year average September precipitation excess (i.e., PD>0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 121 to 321mm between 2000 and 2090. Conversely, the 20-year average February precipitation deficit (i.e., PD

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