Managing Uncertainties in the Transition Towards Sustainability: Cases of Emerging Energy Technologies in the Netherlands

Abstract Steering technological innovation towards sustainability is a fundamental part of governance for sustainable development. This article uses the term transition to indicate that sustainable technology development not only involves technological changes, but also changes in social and cultural dimensions. The direction and speed of transitions are determined largely by the collective innovation decisions of various actors involved. This article focuses on uncertainties from an actor-perspective, since the uncertainties perceived by the actors involved will influence their decisions greatly. Special attention is given to the entrepreneurs: business firms involved in developing and implementing technological innovation. By examining two empirical cases of emerging sustainable energy technologies in the Netherlands (micro-CHP and biofuels), we demonstrate which types of perceived uncertainties influence the innovation decisions of the actors involved and how these actors respond to perceived uncertainties. Uncertainty about government policy was dominant in both cases. Comparison of both case studies shows that uncertainties have a greater negative effect on innovation decisions when the time-to-market is smaller.

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