Long term intelligent load forecasting method considering the expectation of power market transaction

In the power market, the power generation and consumption behavior will be more difficult to capture and predict than in the environment of monopolistic buying and selling model. Smart grid planning and operation is going to be challenged. In order to adapt to the new situation, it is necessary to actively explore some innovative load forecasting methods. The improved method of intelligent load forecasting was put forward on the two aspects. Firstly, the power price response was added into the long term load forecasting method. Secondly, the most probable market transactions were simulated based on the forecasting results of load distribution, power plant planning and marginal price, thus the power balance and transaction prices of the long term power market could be captured, and then the trading results could conversely corrects the load forecasting results. Shown as the case study, the intelligent method took full account of the market participants' elastic response to the expected trading behavior, and brought a certain reference to the smart grid planning in the power market environment.

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