The modifiable areal unit problem in traffic safety: Basic issue, potential solutions and future research

Abstract This study fully addressed the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) that was well-known in geography but generally ignored by safety analysis. The basic issue of MAUP was introduced firstly with a case study to explicitly demonstrate the existence of the problem in macro level crash modeling, and then four potential strategies, i.e., using disaggregate data as possible, capturing spatial non-stationarity, designing optimal zoning systems, conducting sensitivity analysis to report the scope and magnitude of MAUP, were proposed and illustrated in an integrated way, followed by the future research directions. Results revealed that more efforts are desired to calibrate the state-of-art modeling technique at various levels of aggregation based on spatial homogeneity in traffic safety, transport characteristics, and demographical factors. The awareness of this problem in traffic safety domain is expected to the delineation of basic spatial units (e.g. the traffic safety analysis zones), as well as to provide new insights into the nature of MAUP in statistics and geography.