Global Catastrophic Risks

Acknowledgements Foreword Introduction I BACKGROUND Long-term astrophysical processes Evolution theory and the future of humanity Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Systems-based risk analysis Catastrophes and insurance Public policy towards catastrophe II RISKS FROM NATURE Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import Hazards from comets and asteroids Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment III RISKS FROM UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Climate change and global risk Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Big troubles, imagined and real IV RISKS FROM HOSTILE ACTS Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction The continuing threat of nuclear war Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Biotechnology and biosecurity Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk The totalitarian threat Author's biographies Index

[1]  J. Mooney.  The Ghost-Dance Religion and the Sioux Outbreak of 1890 , 1896 .

[2]  E. Root,et al.  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , 1936, Nature.

[3]  Hadley Cantril,et al.  The invasion from Mars : a study in the psychology of panic , 1941 .

[4]  A. E. Stearn,et al.  The Effect of Smallpox on the Destiny of the Amerindian , 1946 .

[5]  International Control of Atomic Energy , 1947, Nature.

[6]  The Ranks of Death: A Medical History of the Conquest of America , 1947 .

[7]  E. Tuveson.  Millennium and Utopia : a study in the background of the idea of progress , 1951 .

[8]  D. Horstmann.  POLIOMYELITIS: SEVERITY AND TYPE OF DISEASE IN DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS , 1955, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[9]  John H. Herz.  Rise and Demise of the Territorial State , 1957, World Politics.

[10]  P. Wason.  On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task , 1960 .

[11]  J. Maddox,et al.  The spread of nuclear weapons , 1962 .

[12]  Robert W. Kates,et al.  Hazard And Choice Perception In Flood Plain Management , 1962 .

[13]  V. Lanternari.  The Religions of the Oppressed - A Study of Modern Messianic Cults , 1963 .

[14]  J. L. Weinberg.  The Zodiacal Light and the Interplanetary Medium , 1967 .

[15]  Kitsiri Malalgoda.  Millennialism in Relation to Buddhism , 1970, Comparative Studies in Society and History.

[16]  J. Stephenson.  World health report. , 2004, Lancet.

[17]  F. Black,et al.  Intensified reactions to measles vaccine in unexposed populations of american Indians. , 1971, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[18]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[19]  J. Ball.  The zoo hypothesis , 1973 .

[20]  Final Report on the “Tuskegee Syphilis Study” , 1974, Southern medical journal.

[21]  W. Louwerse,et al.  Crop simulation and experimental evaluation : a case study , 1974 .

[22]  M. Ruderman.  Possible Consequences of Nearby Supernova Explosions for Atmospheric Ozone and Terrestrial Life , 1974, Science.

[23]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[24]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things , 1975 .

[25]  Brian Michael Jenkins,et al.  International terrorism : a new mode of conflict , 1975 .

[26]  S. Naquin.  Millenarian rebellion in China : the Eight Trigrams uprising of 1813 , 1978, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[27]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical analyses of water resources systems : modeling and optimization of large-scale systems , 1977 .

[28]  M. J. Carr.  Volcanic Activity and Great Earthquakes at Convergent Plate Margins , 1977, Science.

[29]  R. Sparks,et al.  The exceptional magnitude and intensity of the Toba eruption, sumatra: An example of the use of deep-sea tephra layers as a geological tool , 1978 .

[30]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Judged frequency of lethal events , 1978 .

[31]  N. Shackleton,et al.  K–Ar age of the late Pleistocene eruption of Toba, north Sumatra , 1978, Nature.

[32]  G. Hunt.  Possible climatic and biological impact of nearby supernovae , 1978, Nature.

[33]  Comets, Ice Ages, and Ecological Catastrophes , 1978 .

[34]  P. Thornton,et al.  What Future for Employment , 1979 .

[35]  R. Sparks,et al.  Duration of large-magnitude explosive eruptions deduced from graded bedding in deep-sea ash layers , 1979 .

[36]  S. V. M. Clube,et al.  A theory of terrestrial catastrophism , 1979, Nature.

[37]  M. Balfour.  The Hitler Movement: A Modern Millenarian Revolution , 1980 .

[38]  Frank J. Tipler,et al.  Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist , 1980 .

[39]  L. W. Alvarez,et al.  Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction , 1980, Science.

[40]  E. D. Kilbourne.  Segmented Genome Viruses and the Evolutionary Potential of Asymmetrical Sex , 2015, Perspectives in biology and medicine.

[41]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[42]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 1981, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[43]  H. Segal,et al.  Utopian Thought in the Western World , 1979 .

[44]  W. Mccrea.  Review Lecture - Long time-scale fluctuations in the evolution of the Earth , 1981, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[45]  Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski,et al.  Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. , 1981 .

[46]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgments of and by Representativeness , 1981 .

[47]  W. Larcher,et al.  Ecological Significance of Resistance to Low Temperature , 1981 .

[48]  Thinking about Nuclear Terrorism , 1982 .

[49]  S. Self,et al.  Historic Eruptions of Tambora (1815), Krakatau (1883), and Agung (1963), their Stratospheric Aerosols, and Climatic Impact , 1982, Quaternary Research.

[50]  M. Douglas,et al.  Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers , 1983 .

[51]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight , 1982 .

[52]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors , 1982 .

[53]  W. Mook,et al.  Carbon-14 Dates at Grande Pile: Correlation of Land and Sea Chronologies , 1982, Science.

[54]  A. Robock,et al.  The Mount St. Helens Volcanic Eruption of 18 May 1980: Large Short-Term Surface Temperature Effects , 1982, Science.

[55]  Fred W. Klein,et al.  Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes , 1982 .

[56]  S. Self,et al.  The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism , 1982 .

[57]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[58]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk , 1982 .

[59]  G. Brin.  The Great Silence - the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life , 1983 .

[60]  P. Hut,et al.  How stable is our vacuum? , 1983, Nature.

[61]  F. von Hippel.  Effects of nuclear war , 1983 .

[62]  B. Carter.  The anthropic principle and its implications for biological evolution , 1983, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[63]  Carl Sagan,et al.  Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multple Nuclear Explosions , 1983, Science.

[64]  E. D. Kilbourne,et al.  Hemagglutinin of swine influenza virus: a single amino acid change pleiotropically affects viral antigenicity and replication. , 1983, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[65]  M. Harwell.  Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War , 1984 .

[66]  Observable characteristics of extraterrestrial technological civilisations , 1985 .

[67]  D. Parkin.  Cosmic spherules, asteroidal collisions and the possibility of detecting changes in the solar constant , 1985 .

[68]  Nuclear Winter: The Evidence and the Risks , 1985 .

[69]  A. Hill,et al.  Evolutionary relationships of human populations from an analysis of nuclear DNA polymorphisms , 1986, Nature.

[70]  A. Hibbs.  QED: The Strange Theory of Light and Matter , 1986 .

[71]  S. Rouhani,et al.  How small was the bottleneck? , 1986, Nature.

[72]  S. Fender.  The New York Review of Books , 1986 .

[73]  D M Raup,et al.  Periodic extinction of families and genera. , 1986, Science.

[74]  J. Sepkoski.  Is the periodicity of extinctions a taxonomic artefact? , 1987, Nature.

[76]  Aaron Wildavsky,et al.  Choosing Preferences by Constructing Institutions: A Cultural Theory of Preference Formation , 1987, American Political Science Review.

[77]  D. Gilbert,et al.  On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet persons perceived. , 1988 .

[78]  I. Gilmour,et al.  Early environmental effects of the terminal Cretaceous impact , 1988 .

[79]  J. Besse,et al.  Deccan flood basalts and the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary , 1988, Nature.

[80]  A. Tversky,et al.  Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment , 1983 .

[81]  B. Voight,et al.  A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions , 1988, Nature.

[82]  I. Gilmour,et al.  Global fire at the Cretaceous– Tertiary boundary , 1988, Nature.

[83]  J. Kagan,et al.  Rational choice in an uncertain world , 1988 .

[84]  J. Frederiksen,et al.  General circulation model simulation of mild nuclear winter effects , 1989 .

[85]  J. Bischoff,et al.  Abrupt Mousterian/Aurignacian boundary at c. 40 ka bp: accelerator 14C dates from L'Arbreda Cave (Catalunya, Spain) , 1989 .

[86]  M. Byrom,et al.  The stuff that dreams are made of. , 1989, The Health service journal.

[87]  Eric Horvitz,et al.  Reflection and Action Under Scarce Resources: Theoretical Principles and Empirical Study , 1989, IJCAI.

[88]  Resource Letter ETC-1: extraterrestrial civilization. , 1989, American journal of physics.

[89]  Halzen,et al.  Muons in gamma showers. , 1985, Physical review. D, Particles and fields.

[90]  Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model, revision 1 , 1989 .

[91]  Daniel T. Gilbert,et al.  Thinking backward: some curable and incurable consequences of cognitive busyness , 1989 .

[92]  R. Turco,et al.  Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds , 1989 .

[93]  Laurens de Haan,et al.  Fighting the arch–enemy with mathematics‘ , 1990 .

[94]  Z. Kunda,et al.  The case for motivated reasoning. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.

[95]  J. Leslie.  Risking the world's end , 1990 .

[96]  W. Rose,et al.  Worldwide dispersal of ash and gases from earth's largest known eruption: Toba, Sumatra, 75 ka , 1990 .

[97]  L S Walter,et al.  The uses of satellite technology in disaster management. , 1990, Disasters.

[98]  S. Tremaine.  Out of the blue , 1990, Nature.

[99]  C. Sagan,et al.  Climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclear winter. , 1990, Science.

[100]  Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems in the Northern Temperate Zone; Predictions of seasonal depressed-temperature kill mechanisms, biomass production, and wildfire soot emissions , 1990 .

[101]  A Path Where No Man Thought; Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race , 1991 .

[102]  J. Tainter,et al.  The Collapse of Complex Societies , 1988 .

[103]  F. Wilczek,et al.  Unification of Couplings , 1991 .

[104]  A. Woods,et al.  Dimensions and dynamics of co-ignimbrite eruption columns , 1991, Nature.

[105]  Servando Cruz-Reyna,et al.  Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity , 1991 .

[106]  C. E. Duller,et al.  Mexican site for K/T impact crater? , 1991, Nature.

[107]  Resource Letter AP‐1: The anthropic principle , 1991 .

[108]  Karl Dake.  Orienting Dispositions in the Perception of Risk , 1991 .

[109]  David Alexander,et al.  Information technology in real-time for monitoring and managing natural disasters , 1991 .

[110]  R. R. Cornelius,et al.  Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time , 1991, Nature.

[111]  Steven J. Kachelmeier,et al.  Examining Risk Preferences under High Monetary Incentives: Experimental Evidence from the People's Republic of China , 1992 .

[112]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption , 1992 .

[113]  S. Kaplan.  The General Theory of Quantitative Risk Assessment , 1992 .

[114]  L. Cosmides,et al.  The Adapted mind : evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture , 1992 .

[115]  A. Tversky,et al.  The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence , 1992, Cognitive Psychology.

[116]  H. Salisbury.  The new emperors : China in the era of Mao and Deng , 1992 .

[117]  G. Harrison.  Valuing public goods with the contingent valuation method: A critique of kahneman and knetsch , 1992 .

[118]  Stephen Self,et al.  Volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the Toba super-eruption , 1992, Nature.

[119]  J. Brock,et al.  Interannual variability in phytoplankton blooms observed in the northwestern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon , 1992 .

[120]  F. Black,et al.  Why did they die? , 1992, Science.

[121]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction , 1992 .

[122]  A. Strong.  A note on the possible connection between the El Chichón eruption and ocean production in the northwest Arabian Sea during 1982 , 1993 .

[123]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions , 1993 .

[124]  R. Thomas,et al.  Without Sin: The Life and Death of the Oneida Community. , 1993 .

[125]  B. Hoffman.  Holy Terror : The Implications of Terrorism Motivated by a Religious Imperative , 1993 .

[126]  Vernor Vinge,et al.  ==================================================================== the Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-human Era , 2022 .

[127]  J. Laskar,et al.  Stabilization of the Earth's obliquity by the Moon , 1993, Nature.

[128]  Stephen T. Sherry,et al.  The Genetic Structure of Ancient Human Populations , 1993, Current Anthropology.

[129]  Kevin J. Boyle,et al.  Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability , 1993 .

[130]  S. Self,et al.  Bottleneck in human evolution and the Toba eruption. , 1993, Science.

[131]  Daniel McFadden,et al.  Issues in the Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods: Methodologies for Data Collection and Analysis , 1993 .

[132]  Bruce Hoffman,et al.  Terrorist Targeting: Tactics, Trends, and Potentialities , 1993 .

[133]  S. Acharyya,et al.  Toba Ash on the Indian Subcontinent and Its Implications for Correlation of Late Pleistocene Alluvium , 1993, Quaternary Research.

[134]  Gregory Stock,et al.  Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism , 1993 .

[135]  A. Robock,et al.  Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: model versus observations , 1993 .

[136]  J. Gott.  Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects , 1993, Nature.

[137]  A. Gibbons.  Pleistocene population explosions. , 1993, Science.

[138]  Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of ∼74,000 Years Ago , 1993 .

[139]  J. Hansen,et al.  GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations , 1993 .

[140]  P. Boyer,et al.  When Time Shall Be No More: Prophecy Belief in Modern American Culture , 1993 .

[141]  G. Brady.  Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action , 1993 .

[142]  Extraterrestrial intelligence. , 1993, Science.

[143]  Strangelet search in S-W collisions at 200A GeV/c. , 1994, Physical review letters.

[144]  G. Neukum,et al.  Crater Size Distributions and Impact Probabilities on Earth from Lunar, Terrestrial Planeta, and Asteroid Cratering Data , 1994 .

[145]  Michael Baillie,et al.  Dendrochronology raises questions about the nature of the AD 536 dust-veil event , 1994 .

[146]  S T Sherry,et al.  Mismatch distributions of mtDNA reveal recent human population expansions. , 1994, Human biology.

[147]  Richard Pipes,et al.  Russia under the Bolshevik Regime , 1994 .

[148]  David Morrison,et al.  Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard , 1994, Nature.

[149]  T. Whittam,et al.  Is Mycobacterium tuberculosis 15,000 years old? , 1994, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[150]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Selection of Probability Distributions in Characterizing Risk of Extreme Events , 1994 .

[151]  F. Black.  An Explanation of High Death Rates among New World Peoples When in Contact with Old World Diseases , 2015, Perspectives in biology and medicine.

[152]  Douglas H. Erwin,et al.  The Permo–Triassic extinction , 1994, Nature.

[153]  T. Flannery.  The Future Eaters , 1994 .

[154]  Arnon Dar,et al.  Gamma Ray Bursts from Minijets , 1994 .

[155]  Micol Todesco,et al.  Assessing the pyroclastic flow hazard at Vesuvius , 1994, Nature.

[156]  K. Baines,et al.  Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model. , 1994, Earth and planetary science letters.

[157]  Carter on Anthropic Principle Predictions , 1994, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[158]  R. Buehler,et al.  Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. , 1994 .

[159]  Carl Sagan,et al.  Long-range consequences of interplanetary collisions , 1994 .

[160]  Peter Norvig,et al.  Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach , 1995 .

[161]  Terrestrial implications of cosmological gamma-ray burst models , 1995, astro-ph/9501019.

[162]  Could a nearby supernova explosion have caused a mass extinction? , 1993, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[163]  Kirkpatrick Sale,et al.  Rebels Against The Future: The Luddites And Their War On The Industrial Revolution: Lessons For The Computer Age , 1995 .

[164]  A. Meyer.  Economics Of Climate Change , 1995, Nature.

[165]  Clayton M. Christensen,et al.  Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave , 1995 .

[166]  R. Carson,et al.  Sequencing and Nesting in Contingent Valuation Surveys , 1995 .

[167]  A. Chivas,et al.  Oxygen isotopes in western Australian coral reveal Pinatubo aerosol‐induced cooling in the Western Pacific Warm Pool , 1995 .

[168]  M. Benton,et al.  Diversification and extinction in the history of life. , 1995, Science.

[169]  B. Larke.  The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance. , 1995 .

[170]  R. Buehler,et al.  It's About Time: Optimistic Predictions in Work and Love , 1995 .

[171]  G. Price.  The nature of selection , 1995 .

[172]  L. Jorde,et al.  Genetic evidence on modern human origins. , 1995, Human biology.

[173]  New Geochemical Evidence for the Youngest Toba Tuff in India , 1995 .

[174]  B. Lazar,et al.  Vertical mixing and coral death in the Red Sea following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo , 1995, Nature.

[175]  D. Pyle.  Mass and energy budgets of explosive volcanic eruptions , 1995 .

[176]  Bernard A. Chouet,et al.  Long-period volcano seismicity: its source and use in eruption forecasting , 1996, Nature.

[177]  Guido Visconti,et al.  The Mount Pinatubo eruption : effects on the atmosphere and climate , 1996 .

[178]  F. Hoyle,et al.  Giant comets, evolution and civilization , 1996 .

[179]  F. Keil,et al.  Conceptualizing a Nonnatural Entity: Anthropomorphism in God Concepts , 1996, Cognitive Psychology.

[180]  J. Haigh,et al.  The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba Eruption , 1996 .

[181]  Andrew Marshall,et al.  The Cult at the End of the World: The Terrifying Story of the Aum Doomsday Cult, from the Subways of Tokyo to the Nuclear Arsenals of Russia , 1996 .

[182]  Graham Allison,et al.  Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material , 1996 .

[183]  R. Stothers.  Major optical depth perturbations to the stratosphere from volcanic eruptions: Pyrheliometric period, 1881–1960 , 1996 .

[184]  P. Farinella,et al.  The main belt as a source of near-Earth asteroids , 1996 .

[185]  D. Irwin,et al.  Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade , 1997 .

[186]  The Mother of Mass Extinctions , 1996 .

[187]  B. Fields,et al.  Geological Isotope Anomalies as Signatures of Nearby Supernovae , 1996, astro-ph/9605128.

[188]  L. Civetta,et al.  Multifractal analysis of Vesuvius volcano eruptions , 1996 .

[189]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Determinants of insensitivity to quantity in valuation of public goods: Contribution, warm glow, budget constraints, availability, and prominence , 1996 .

[190]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  A new look at anchoring effects: basic anchoring and its antecedents. , 1996, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[191]  K. D. McKeegan,et al.  Evidence for life on Earth before 3,800 million years ago , 1996, Nature.

[192]  L. David Meeker,et al.  A 110,000-Yr Record of Explosive Volcanism from the GISP2 (Greenland) Ice Core , 1996, Quaternary Research.

[193]  Kendrick C. Taylor,et al.  Potential atmospheric impact of the Toba Mega‐Eruption ∼71,000 years ago , 1996 .

[194]  D. Wójcik.  The End of the World As We Know It , 1997 .

[195]  Stephen M. Johnson,et al.  Insensitivity to the Value of Human Life: A Study of Psychophysical Numbing , 1997 .

[196]  R. Schaller,et al.  Moore's law: past, present and future , 1997 .

[197]  Gregory Laughlin,et al.  A dying universe: the long-term fate and evolutionof astrophysical objects , 1997, astro-ph/9701131.

[198]  H. Jensen,et al.  On the critical behaviour of simple epidemics , 1997, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[199]  B. Hoffman.  Terrorism and WMD some preliminary hypotheses , 1997 .

[200]  J. Kasting,et al.  Habitable moons around extrasolar giant planets , 1997, Nature.

[201]  The A.D. 79 eruption as a future explosive scenario in the Vesuvian area: evaluation of associated risk , 1997 .

[202]  Paul Lerner,et al.  The origins of Nazi genocide: from euthanasia to the final solution , 1997, Medical History.

[203]  M. Pilkington,et al.  Size and morphology of the Chicxulub impact crater , 1997, Nature.

[204]  Stephen F. Haller.  The end of the world: The science and ethics of human extinction , 1997 .

[205]  F. Strack,et al.  Explaining the Enigmatic Anchoring Effect: Mechanisms of Selective Accessibility , 1997 .

[206]  David Morrison,et al.  Environmental Perturbations Caused by the Impacts of Asteroids and Comets , 1997 .

[207]  LIFE EXTINCTIONS BY COSMIC RAY JETS , 1997, astro-ph/9705008.

[208]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions , 1998 .

[209]  Galactic Dark Matter and Terrestrial Periodicities , 1998 .

[210]  Wolfgang H. Reinicke.  Global Public Policy: Governing without Government? , 1998 .

[211]  Some considerations on the state of Vesuvius in the Middle Ages and the precursors of the 1631 eruption , 1998 .

[212]  Liam Farrell.  What rough beast? , 1998, BMJ.

[213]  Henrik Svensmark,et al.  Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate , 1998 .

[214]  Donald Favareau.  The Symbolic Species: The Co-evolution of Language and the Brain , 1998 .

[215]  G.E. Moore,et al.  Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits , 1998, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[216]  R. Tedeschi,et al.  Posttraumatic Growth: Future Directions , 1998 .

[217]  S. Dermott,et al.  A 100,000-year periodicity in the accretion rate of interplanetary dust , 1998, Science.

[218]  James H. Lambert,et al.  HYDRAULIC POWER CAPACITY OF WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS IN UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS OF DETERIORATION , 1998 .

[219]  S. Ambrose.  Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans. , 1998, Journal of human evolution.

[220]  Bradley C. Whitsel.  The Turner Diaries and Cosmotheism: William Pierce's Theology , 1998 .

[221]  C. Bender,et al.  Differences in the biological phenotype of low-yielding (L) and high-yielding (H) variants of swine influenza virus A/NJ/11/76 are associated with their different receptor-binding activity. , 1998, Virology.

[222]  D. Rodrik.  Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses , 1998 .

[223]  J. Becker.  Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine , 1998, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[224]  M. Bailey,et al.  Capture of Halley-type comets from the near-parabolic flux , 1998 .

[225]  R. G. Cummings,et al.  VALUING ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS: A STATE OF THE ARTS ASSESSMENT OF THE CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD EXPERIMENTAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS Volume I.B Valuing Environmental Goods: A State of the Arts Assessment of the Contingent Valuation Method , 1998 .

[226]  C. Wessinger.  Radical Religion in America: Millenarian Movements from the Far Right to the Children of Noah:Radical Religion in America: Millenarian Movements from the Far Right to the Children of Noah. , 1998 .

[227]  D Penny,et al.  Testing migration patterns and estimating founding population size in Polynesia by using human mtDNA sequences. , 1998, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[228]  G. D'angio.  Confrontation or cooperation? , 1998, Medical and pediatric oncology.

[229]  R. Freitas,et al.  Exploratory design in medical nanotechnology: a mechanical artificial red cell. , 1998, Artificial cells, blood substitutes, and immobilization biotechnology.

[230]  D. Turcotte,et al.  Forest fires: An example of self-organized critical behavior , 1998, Science.

[231]  Hans P. Moravec.  Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind , 1998 .

[232]  How Rare Are Extraterrestrial Civilizations, and When Did They Emerge? , 1998, astro-ph/9808237.

[233]  R. Stothers.  Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258 , 1999 .

[234]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes , 1999 .

[235]  F. Wilczek.  Quantum Field Theory , 1998, hep-th/9803075.

[236]  S. Walden.  Total Risk Management , 1999 .

[237]  J. Wheeler,et al.  Astrophysical and Astrobiological Implications of Gamma-Ray Burst Properties , 1999, astro-ph/9912564.

[238]  An Astrophysical Explanation for the Great Silence , 1999, astro-ph/9901322.

[239]  L. Randall,et al.  A Large mass hierarchy from a small extra dimension , 1999, hep-ph/9905221.

[240]  R. Wright.  Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny , 1999 .

[241]  The debate on the potential for mass‐casualty terrorism: The challenge to us security , 1999 .

[242]  R. Popkin,et al.  Messianic Revolution: Radical Religious Politics to the End of the Second Millennium , 1999 .

[243]  David G. Rowley.  “Redeemer Empire”: Russian Millenarianism , 1999 .

[244]  Shin Ta Liu,et al.  Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management , 1999, Technometrics.

[245]  A. Sandberg,et al.  The Physics of Information Processing Superobjects : Daily Life Among the Jupiter Brains , 1999 .

[246]  Gavin Cameron.  Nuclear Terrorism: A Threat Assessment for the 21st Century , 1999 .

[247]  P. Pry.  War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink , 1999 .

[248]  Ilana Ritov,et al.  Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues , 1999 .

[249]  The doomsday argument is alive and kicking , 1999 .

[250]  Robert A. Freitas,et al.  Nanomedicine, Volume I: Basic Capabilities , 1999 .

[252]  Crowley,et al.  Atmospheric science: Methane rises from wetlands , 2011, Nature.

[253]  Behl,et al.  Carbon isotopic evidence for methane hydrate instability during quaternary interstadials , 2000, Science.

[254]  D. Brownlee,et al.  Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe , 2000 .

[255]  D. Murphey,et al.  The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression , 2000 .

[256]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Geoengineering Earth's radiation balance to mitigate CO2‐induced climate change , 2000 .

[257]  K. Olum.  The Doomsday Argument and the Number of Possible Observers , 2000, gr-qc/0009081.

[258]  E. Asphaug,et al.  Asteroid Impact Tsunami: A Probabilistic Hazard Assessment , 2000 .

[259]  The Faces of Janus: Marxism and Fascism in the Twentieth Century , 2000 .

[260]  J. Taubenberger,et al.  The 1918 influenza virus: A killer comes into view. , 2000, Virology.

[261]  Eliot A. Cohen,et al.  Toxic terror : assessing terrorist use of chemical and biological weapons , 2000 .

[262]  G. Hewitt.  The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages , 2000, Nature.

[263]  R. Landauer,et al.  Irreversibility and heat generation in the computing process , 1961, IBM J. Res. Dev..

[264]  M. Rampino,et al.  Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash , 2000 .

[265]  Stephen M. Johnson,et al.  The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits , 2000 .

[266]  M. B. Maerli.  Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “weapons of mass destruction , 2000 .

[267]  K. Wei,et al.  Newly discovered eastern dispersal of the youngest Toba Tuff , 2000 .

[268]  Carlton M. Caves,et al.  Predicting future duration from present age: A critical assessment , 2000, astro-ph/0001414.

[269]  Probability of Future Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruptions , 2000 .

[270]  Steve Fetter,et al.  A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change? , 2000, Science.

[271]  Jim Davis,et al.  The New Terror: Facing the Threat of Biological and Chemical Weapons , 2000 .

[272]  N. Bhanu,et al.  Identification of Yersinia pestis as the causative organism of plague in India as determined by 16S rDNA sequencing and RAPD-based genomic fingerprinting. , 2000, FEMS microbiology letters.

[273]  Stellar Engines for Kardashev's Type II Civilisations , 2000 .

[274]  D. Nash.  The Failed and Postponed Millennium: Secular Millennialism Since the Enlightenment , 2000 .

[275]  R. Betts,et al.  Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model , 2000, Nature.

[276]  Stan Kaplan.  Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) into the Theory of Scenario Structuring , 2001 .

[277]  Brian A. Jackson.  Technology Acquisition by Terrorist Groups: Threat Assessment Informed by Lessons from Private Sector Technology Adoption , 2001 .

[278]  THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM ETA CARINAE AND GAMMA-RAY BURSTS , 2001, astro-ph/0110162.

[279]  J. Tucker.  Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox , 2001 .

[280]  LETTERS TO THE EDITORS: On D S Chernavskii's paper ''The origin of life and thinking from the viewpoint of modern physics'' , 2001 .

[281]  Harvey Weiss,et al.  What Drives Societal Collapse? , 2001, Science.

[282]  H. Rickman,et al.  The Cometary Contribution to Planetary Impact Rates , 2001 .

[283]  Biological terrorism and public health , 2001 .

[284]  A. Elitzur,et al.  The emergence of life on Earth. , 2001, Progress in biophysics and molecular biology.

[285]  The Planetarium Hypothesis - A Resolution of the Fermi Paradox , 2001 .

[286]  H. Roscoe.  The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion , 2001 .

[287]  Nuclear Restraint, Nuclear Risk Reduction, and the Security–Insecurity Paradox in South Asia , 2001 .

[288]  N. Bostrom.  ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION ? , 2001 .

[289]  A. Ramsay,et al.  Expression of Mouse Interleukin-4 by a Recombinant Ectromelia Virus Suppresses Cytolytic Lymphocyte Responses and Overcomes Genetic Resistance to Mousepox , 2001, Journal of Virology.

[290]  Astronomical Engineering: A Strategy For Modifying Planetary Orbits , 2001, astro-ph/0102126.

[291]  R. Hanson.  Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes , 2001 .

[292]  Guillermo Gonzalez,et al.  The Galactic Habitable Zone: Galactic Chemical Evolution , 2001 .

[293]  Audience and Message: Assessing Terrorist WMD Potential , 2001 .

[294]  Destroying the World to Save It: Aum Shinrikyo, Apocalyptic Violence, and the New Global Terrorism@@@Religious Violence in Contemporary Japan: The Case of Aum Shinrikyo , 2001 .

[295]  J. Samuel Walker,et al.  Regulating against Nuclear Terrorism: The Domestic Safeguards Issue, 1970-1979 , 2001 .

[296]  An Estimate of the Age Distribution of Terrestrial Planets in the Universe: Quantifying Metallicity as a Selection Effect , 2000, astro-ph/0012399.

[297]  P. deMenocal.  Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene , 2001, Science.

[298]  M. Valtonen,et al.  Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter , 2001 .

[299]  Florida Fights to Stop Citrus Canker , 2001, Science.

[300]  W. Napier.  Temporal variation of the zodiacal dust cloud , 2001 .

[301]  G. Forden,et al.  Reducing a Common Danger Improving Russia ’ s Early-Warning System by , 2001 .

[302]  N. Bostrom.  Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy , 2002 .

[303]  Z. Musielak,et al.  Orbital Stability of Terrestrial Planets inside the Habitable Zones of Extrasolar Planetary Systems , 2002 .

[304]  World Health Body Fires Starting Gun , 2002, Science.

[305]  C. Chyba.  Toward Biological Security , 2002 .

[306]  F. Fedele,et al.  Ecosystem Impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption in Late Pleistocene Europe , 2002, Quaternary Research.

[307]  Kim Christensen,et al.  Unified scaling law for earthquakes. , 2001, Physical review letters.

[308]  Joseph E. Aldy,et al.  The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World , 2003 .

[309]  H. Schulz,et al.  The Toba Volcanic Event and Interstadial/Stadial Climates at the Marine Isotopic Stage 5 to 4 Transition in the Northern Indian Ocean , 2002, Quaternary Research.

[310]  George J Annas,et al.  Protecting the endangered human: toward an international treaty prohibiting cloning and inheritable alterations. , 2002, American journal of law & medicine.

[311]  Niall Johnson,et al.  Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" Influenza Pandemic , 2002, Bulletin of the history of medicine.

[312]  C. Mason.  Killing for Life: The Apocalyptic Narrative of Pro-Life Politics , 2002 .

[313]  M. Blum.  The Origins and Development of Pure Land Buddhism , 2002 .

[314]  J. Blank,et al.  Astrophysical and astrochemical insights into the origin of life , 2002 .

[315]  Nir J. Shaviv,et al.  The spiral structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth , 2002, astro-ph/0209252.

[316]  H. G. Kippenberg.  Apocalypse Observed: Religious Movements and Violence in North America, Europe, and Japan. John R. Hall , Philip D. Schuyler , Sylvaine Trinh , 2002 .

[317]  M. Rampino.  Supereruptions as a threat to civilizations on earth-like planets , 2002 .

[318]  R. Buehler,et al.  Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. , 2002 .

[319]  J. F Rischard,et al.  High noon : twenty global problems, twenty years to solve them , 2002 .

[320]  R. White.  Earth's biggest ‘whodunnit’: unravelling the clues in the case of the end–Permian mass extinction , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[321]  David E Hogan,et al.  Nuclear terrorism. , 2002, The American journal of the medical sciences.

[322]  N. Bostrom.  Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards , 2002 .

[323]  A. Paul,et al.  Chemical Synthesis of Poliovirus cDNA: Generation of Infectious Virus in the Absence of Natural Template , 2002, Science.

[324]  Robert Jedicke,et al.  The Mass Disruption of Oort Cloud Comets , 2002, Science.

[325]  T. Davis,et al.  Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the universe? , 2002, Astrobiology.

[326]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Rational actors or rational fools: implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics , 2002 .

[327]  J. Zerzan.  Running on Emptiness: The Pathology of Civilization , 2002 .

[328]  S. Pinker.  The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature , 2002 .

[329]  Arnon Dar,et al.  On the optical and X-ray afterglows of gamma ray bursts , 2002 .

[330]  A Guide to the End of the World: Everything You Never Wanted to Know , 2002 .

[331]  Frank Lunkeit,et al.  Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models , 2002 .

[332]  Robert Jedicke,et al.  From Magnitudes to Diameters: The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Objects and the Earth Collision Hazard , 2002 .

[333]  Andrei P. Sokolov,et al.  Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations , 2002, Science.

[334]  M. Scheuer.  Through Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America , 2002 .

[335]  Sulaiman Abu Ghaith.  'Why We Fight America': Al-Qa'ida Spokesman Explains September 11 and Declares Intentions to Kill 4 Million Americans with Weapons of Mass Destruction , 2002 .

[336]  D. Morrison,et al.  Dealing with the Impact Hazard , 2002 .

[337]  Betty Pfefferbaum,et al.  Research on the mental health effects of terrorism. , 2002, JAMA.

[338]  Douglas K. Martin,et al.  Top ten biotechnologies for improving health in developing countries , 2002, Nature Genetics.

[339]  Didier Sornette,et al.  Volatility Fingerprints of Large Shocks: Endogenous Versus Exogenous , 2002 .

[340]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[341]  Lisa Thalji,et al.  Psychological reactions to terrorist attacks: findings from the National Study of Americans' Reactions to September 11. , 2002, JAMA.

[342]  C. Oppenheimer.  Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba ≈74 kyr BP? , 2002 .

[343]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value , 2002 .

[344]  Mark Wheelis,et al.  Biological Warfare at the 1346 Siege of Caffa , 2002, Emerging infectious diseases.

[345]  John F. Ahearne.  Megawatts and Megatons: A Turning Point in the Nuclear Age? , 2002 .

[346]  Riccardo Viale,et al.  On the reality of the conjunction fallacy , 2002, Memory & cognition.

[347]  E. Cohen.  Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism , 2002 .

[348]  J. Kirkby,et al.  Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate , 2002, Science.

[349]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  Time preference in global warming calculations: a proposal for a unified index , 2002 .

[350]  Martin J. Rees,et al.  Our final hour : a scientist's warning : how terror, error, and environmental disaster threaten humankind's future in this century-- on earth and beyond , 2003 .

[351]  N. Bostrom.  Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development , 2003, Utilitas.

[352]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Goedel Machines: Self-Referential Universal Problem Solvers Making Provably Optimal Self-Improvements , 2003, ArXiv.

[353]  David Albright,et al.  A bomb for the Ummah , 2003 .

[354]  Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons: An Action Agenda for the Global Partnership , 2003 .

[355]  Steven J. Dick,et al.  Cultural evolution, the postbiological universe and SETI , 2003, International Journal of Astrobiology.

[356]  J. Fitch,et al.  Technology Challenges in Responding to Biological or Chemical Attacks in the Civilian Sector , 2003, Science.

[357]  D. Hughes.  The approximate ratios between the diameters of terrestrial impact craters and the causative incident asteroids , 2003 .

[358]  Smithsonian S. Dillon.  Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak , 2003 .

[359]  M. Larkin.  Our Final Hour , 2003 .

[360]  B. Caplan.  The idea trap: the political economy of growth divergence , 2003 .

[361]  Joy Bill,et al.  Why the future doesn’t need us , 2003 .

[362]  Conflict between anthropic reasoning and observation , 2003, gr-qc/0303070.

[363]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  Optimal Allocation of Resources for Defense of Simple Series and Parallel Systems from Determined Adversaries , 2003 .

[364]  K. Engvild.  A review of the risks of sudden global cooling and its effects on agriculture , 2003 .

[365]  Michael J. Benton,et al.  When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time , 2003 .

[366]  Andrea H. Tapia,et al.  Technomillennialism: A Subcultural Response to the Technological Threat of Y2K , 2003 .

[367]  The Supernova Associated with GRB 030329 , 2003, astro-ph/0304106.

[368]  S. Ambrose.  Did the super-eruption of Toba cause a human population bottleneck? Reply to Gathorne-Hardy and Harcourt-Smith. , 2003, Journal of human evolution.

[369]  Gordon H. McCormick.  Terrorist Decision Making , 2003 .

[370]  Kevin L. Kliesen.  Was Y2K behind the business investment boom and bust , 2003 .

[371]  M. Ćirković.  ON THE IMPORTANCE OF SETI FOR TRANSHUMANISM , 2003 .

[372]  Konrad A Hughen,et al.  Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization , 2003, Science.

[373]  Robert Carlson,et al.  The pace and proliferation of biological technologies. , 2003, Biosecurity and bioterrorism : biodefense strategy, practice, and science.

[374]  L. Cederman.  Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles , 2003, American Political Science Review.

[375]  Nick Bostrom,et al.  When machines outsmart humans , 2003 .

[376]  R. Coker.  Betrayal of trust: the collapse of global public health , 2003 .

[377]  M. Benton,et al.  How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event , 2003 .

[378]  A Case for Amillennialism: Understanding the End Times , 2003 .

[379]  M. Burchell,et al.  Survival of bacteria and spores under extreme shock pressures , 2004 .

[380]  Graham Allison,et al.  Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe , 2004 .

[381]  G. Karupiah,et al.  Polarized type 1 cytokine response and cell-mediated immunity determine genetic resistance to mousepox , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[382]  U. Visco-Comandini,et al.  Tuberculoid leprosy in a patient with AIDS: a manifestation of immune restoration syndrome , 2004, Scandinavian journal of infectious diseases.

[383]  B. O’Neill,et al.  Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[384]  Morten Bremer Mærli.  Crude Nukes on the Loose? : Preventing Nuclear Terrorism by Means of Optimum Nuclear Husbandry, Transparency, and Non-Intrusive Fissile Material Verification , 2004 .

[385]  N. Gehrels,et al.  Did a gamma-ray burst initiate the late Ordovician mass extinction? , 2003, International Journal of Astrobiology.

[386]  Y2K as an Endtime Sign: Apocalypticism in America at the fin‐de‐millennium , 2004 .

[387]  David S. Smith,et al.  Importance of Biologically Active Aurora-like Ultraviolet Emission: Stochastic Irradiation of Earth and Mars by Flares and Explosions , 2003, Origins of life and evolution of the biosphere.

[388]  B. Hapke,et al.  Are the circular, dark features on Comet Borrelly's surface albedo variations or pits? , 2004 .

[389]  Kerry J. Eby.  NEUROPSYCHIATRIC CASUALTIES OF NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL WARFARE , 2004 .

[390]  D. Normile.  Infectious diseases. Second lab accident fuels fears about SARS. , 2004, Science.

[391]  Martin J. Rees,et al.  Our final century : will civilisation survive the twenty-first crntury? , 2004 .

[392]  S. Ferraz-Mello,et al.  Resonances and stability of extra-solar planetary systems , 2004, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union.

[393]  S. Solanki,et al.  Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years , 2004, Nature.

[394]  O. Peles,et al.  Stability of terrestrial planets in the habitable zone of Gl 777 A, HD 72659, Gl 614, 47 Uma and HD 4208 , 2004 .

[395]  C. Chyba,et al.  Biotechnology and Bioterrorism: An Unprecedented World , 2004 .

[396]  US food safety under siege? , 2004, Nature Biotechnology.

[397]  Robert T. Batcher.  The Consequences of an Indo-Pakistani Nuclear War , 2004 .

[398]  Arnon Dar,et al.  Towards a complete theory of gamma-ray bursts , 2004 .

[399]  Yongjin Wang,et al.  Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of “ Dangerous ” Climate Change , 2004 .

[400]  R. Bilham,et al.  Urban Earthquake Fatalities: A Safer World, or Worse to Come? , 2004 .

[401]  Christopher Rose,et al.  Inscribed matter as an energy-efficient means of communication with an extraterrestrial civilization , 2004, Nature.

[402]  Amy Sands,et al.  The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism , 2005 .

[403]  Adeline R. Whitney,et al.  The host response to smallpox: analysis of the gene expression program in peripheral blood cells in a nonhuman primate model. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[404]  J. Schaefer.  Book Review: The Far-Future Universe: Eschatology from a Cosmic Perspective , 2004 .

[405]  Milan M Cirković.  The temporal aspect of the drake equation and SETI. , 2004, Astrobiology.

[406]  R. Betts,et al.  Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century , 2004 .

[407]  M. Maslin,et al.  Linking continental-slope failures and climate change: Testing the clathrate gun hypothesis , 2004 .

[408]  N. Wickramasinghe,et al.  Extreme albedo comets and the impact hazard , 2004 .

[409]  C. Chapman.  The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on earth , 2004 .

[410]  M. Webb,et al.  Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations , 2004, Nature.

[411]  R. Weiss.  Circe, Cassandra, and the trojan pigs: xenotransplantation. , 2004, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society.

[412]  E. Rigby,et al.  A comet impact in AD 536 , 2004 .

[413]  W. Holland,et al.  The debris disc around τ Ceti: a massive analogue to the Kuiper Belt , 2004 .

[414]  J. Walsh,et al.  Permafrost dynamics in the 20th and 21st centuries along the East Siberian transect , 2004 .

[415]  P. Schultz,et al.  The Quaternary impact record from the Pampas, Argentina , 2004 .

[416]  Published by: American , 2022 .

[417]  Clive Oppenheimer,et al.  The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth , 2004 .

[418]  Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System , 2004, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union.

[419]  Klaus Keller,et al.  Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System , 2005 .

[420]  S. Cosgrove,et al.  Ability of physicians to diagnose and manage illness due to category A bioterrorism agents. , 2005, Archives of internal medicine.

[421]  David E. Swayne,et al.  Characterization of the Reconstructed 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic Virus , 2005, Science.

[422]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming , 2005, Science.

[423]  Elisa D. Harris,et al.  Controlling Dangerous Pathogens: A Prototype Protective Oversight System , 2005 .

[424]  Wim van Vierssen,et al.  Climate proofing the Netherlands , 2005, Nature.

[425]  D. Revelle,et al.  Meteoritic dust from the atmospheric disintegration of a large meteoroid , 2005, Nature.

[426]  Vibrio illnesses after Hurricane Katrina--multiple states, August-September 2005. , 2005, MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.

[427]  I. Arita.  Smallpox vaccine and its stockpile in 2005. , 2005, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[428]  More bioterrorism education needed , 2005 .

[429]  E. Maier‐Reimer,et al.  Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms , 2005, Nature.

[430]  John V. Parachini,et al.  Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism , 2005 .

[431]  C. Richard Talley,et al.  Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies—and What It Means To Be Human , 2005 .

[432]  Charles S. Taber,et al.  Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs , 2006 .

[433]  Amy E. Knaup.  Survival and Longevity in the Business Employment Dynamics Data , 2005 .

[434]  Randolph L. Kirk,et al.  The rayed crater Zunil and interpretations of small impact craters on Mars , 2005 .

[435]  Josh Schollmeyer.  Lights, camera, ARMAGEDDON , 2005 .

[436]  D. Watts,et al.  Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[437]  Magnetic field in galaxies, galaxy clusters, and intergalactic space , 2005, astro-ph/0504480.

[438]  J. Diamond.  Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed , 2005 .

[439]  J. Hey.  On the Number of New World Founders: A Population Genetic Portrait of the Peopling of the Americas , 2005, PLoS biology.

[440]  M. Ćirković.  Too early? on the apparent conflict of astrobiology and cosmology , 2005, astro-ph/0505006.

[441]  L. Arnold.  TRANSIT LIGHT-CURVE SIGNATURES OF ARTIFICIAL OBJECTS , 2005, astro-ph/0503580.

[442]  Milton Leitenberg,et al.  Assessing The Biological Weapons And Bioterrorism Threat , 2005 .

[443]  A. Werner.  American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer , 2005 .

[444]  Stephanie Smith.  Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction: Establishment and Composition , 2005 .

[445]  A. Gurevich,et al.  Runaway Breakdown and the Mysteries of Lightning , 2005 .

[446]  K. Emanuel.  Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years , 2005, Nature.

[447]  Robert J. Bradbury,et al.  Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the Apparent Failure of SETI , 2005, ArXiv.

[448]  P. Slovic,et al.  The 'Wildavsky Heuristic': The Cultural Orientation of Mass Political Opinion , 2005 .

[449]  Evidence from an Ice Core of a Large Impact Circa 1443 A.D. , 2005 .

[450]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[451]  The Seven Myths of Nuclear Terrorism , 2005 .

[452]  Malte Meinshausen,et al.  On the Risk of Overshooting 2°C , 2005 .

[453]  How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe , 2005, astro-ph/0512204.

[454]  Charles D. Ferguson,et al.  Laser Enrichment: Separation anxiety , 2005 .

[455]  N. Gehrels,et al.  Terrestrial Ozone Depletion due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst , 2004, astro-ph/0411284.

[456]  The illusion of gravity. , 2005, Scientific American.

[457]  Get ready now for the next flu pandemic , 2005 .

[458]  C. Oppenheimer,et al.  Super-eruptions: global effects and future threats , 2005 .

[459]  Richard P. Binzel,et al.  Constraining near-Earth object albedos using near-infrared spectroscopy , 2005 .

[460]  Robert A. Freitas,et al.  A Peer-reviewed Electronic Journal Published by the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes Using Digest and Discharge Protocol , 2022 .

[461]  - 1-Life After Kyoto : Alternative Approaches to Global Warming Policies , 2005 .

[462]  Clark R. Chapman,et al.  Secondary craters on Europa and implications for cratered surfaces , 2005, Nature.

[463]  V. Emel,et al.  EARTH IN THE COSMIC SHOOTING GALLERY , 2005 .

[464]  Yee-Wei Lim,et al.  Reducing the global burden of acute lower respiratory infections in children: the contribution of new diagnostics , 2006, Nature.

[465]  Kristen L. Helton,et al.  Microfluidic Overview of Global Health Issues Microfluidic Diagnostic Technologies for Global Public Health , 2006 .

[466]  J. Kienle.  Volcanoes of North America , 2006 .

[467]  Hermann Held,et al.  Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate , 2006 .

[468]  Terrorist Organizational Factors and the Pursuit and Use of CBRN Terrorism , 2006 .

[469]  V. Badescu,et al.  Use of class A and class C stellar engines to control sun movement in the galaxy , 2006 .

[470]  W. Napier.  Evidence for cometary bombardment episodes , 2006 .

[471]  D. Alexander,et al.  The challenge of preparation for a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear terrorist attack. , 2006, Journal of postgraduate medicine.

[472]  M. Bennish,et al.  Single-dose azithromycin for the treatment of cholera in adults. , 2006, The New England journal of medicine.

[473]  N. Brooks.  Cultural responses to aridity in the Middle Holocene and increased social complexity , 2006 .

[474]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks , 2006, Global public health.

[475]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[476]  L. F. Chaves,et al.  Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[477]  D. Vokrouhlický,et al.  A late Miocene dust shower from the break-up of an asteroid in the main belt , 2006, Nature.

[478]  Pavel Podvig.  Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch , 2006 .

[479]  P. Fu,et al.  A perspective of synthetic biology: Assembling building blocks for novel functions , 2006, Biotechnology journal.

[480]  A. Kleinman,et al.  SARS in China: prelude to pandemic? , 2006 .

[481]  Federico Girosi,et al.  Developing and interpreting models to improve diagnostics in developing countries , 2006, Nature.

[482]  R. Service.  The Race for the $1000 Genome , 2006, Science.

[483]  R. May,et al.  Plagues and peoples , 2006, IUBMB life.

[484]  Jeffrey T. Kiehl,et al.  Geoengineering climate Change: Treating the symptom over the cause? , 2006 .

[485]  Wendell Wallach,et al.  Why Machine Ethics? , 2006, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[486]  S. Huffmon.  Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? , 2006 .

[487]  Laura H. Kahn.  Confronting Zoonoses, Linking Human and Veterinary Medicine , 2006, Emerging infectious diseases.

[488]  Michael Anderson,et al.  Guest Editors' Introduction: Machine Ethics , 2006, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[489]  S. B. Pole,et al.  Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[490]  Michel Crucifix,et al.  Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity? , 2006 .

[491]  E. D. Kilbourne.  Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century , 2006, Emerging infectious diseases.

[492]  Helen M Blau,et al.  A brief history of RNAi: the silence of the genes , 2006, FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology.

[493]  Yu Li,et al.  Genome Sequence Diversity and Clues to the Evolution of Variola (Smallpox) Virus , 2006, Science.

[494]  Wolfgang Reinicke Global Public Policy: Governing without Government? , 2006 .

[495]  P. Crutzen.  Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma? , 2006 .

[496]  Robert B. Seidensticker.  Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change , 2006 .

[497]  Raymond A Zilinskas,et al.  The promise and perils of synthetic biology. , 2006, New Atlantis.

[498]  J. Seward,et al.  Smallpox , 2006, The Lancet.

[499]  C. Laird,et al.  Evidence for a stratigraphic record of supernovae in polar ice , 2006 .

[500]  Kristian Skrede Gleditsch,et al.  Scale Invariance in the Severity of Terrorism , 2006 .

[501]  J. Waage,et al.  Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future , 2006, Science.

[502]  J. Kirkby,et al.  Variations of Galactic Cosmic Rays and the Earth's Climate , 2006 .

[503]  J. Heeney,et al.  Origins of HIV and the Evolution of Resistance to AIDS , 2006, Science.

[504]  J. Patz,et al.  Malaria risk and temperature: influences from global climate change and local land use practices. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[505]  Eliezer Yudkowsky.  Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk , 2006 .

[506]  Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War Volume I: Physical and Atmospheric Effects , 2006 .

[507]  David E. Swayne,et al.  A Two-Amino Acid Change in the Hemagglutinin of the 1918 Influenza Virus Abolishes Transmission , 2007, Science.

[508]  A. Berge.  The Great Stink of Paris and the Nineteenth-Century Struggle Against Filth and Germs , 2007 .

[509]  P. Walker.  After the Ice: A Global Human History, 20,000 B.C.5,000 B.C. By Steven Mithen (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 2004) 622 pp. $29.95 , 2007, Journal of Interdisciplinary History.

[510]  R. Turco,et al.  Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts , 2007, Science.

[511]  Freedom to Fund , 2007, Cell.

[512]  Mike Lockwood,et al.  Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[513]  Michael E. Schlesinger,et al.  The concept of climate sensitivity: History and development , 2007 .

[514]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  New Millennium AI and the Convergence of History: Update of 2012 , 2012 .

[515]  James J. Hughes.  The Compatibility of Religious and Transhumanist Views of Metaphysics, Suffering, Virtue and Transcendence in an Enhanced Future , 2007 .

[516]  R. Freitas.  Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators , with Public Policy Recommendations , 2007 .

[517]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Phantom System Models for Emergent Multiscale Systems , 2007 .

[518]  Robert A. Freitas,et al.  The Ideal Gene Delivery Vector: Chromallocytes, Cell Repair Nanorobots for Chromosome Replacement Therapy , 2007 .

[519]  M. G. Morgan,et al.  Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change , 2007 .

[520]  M. Rublee.  Review of The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed , 2007 .

[521]  C. A. Hutchinson,et al.  Genome transplantation in bacteria: changing one species to another. , 2007, Nature Reviews Microbiology.

[522]  M. Ćirković.  Evolutionary catastrophes and the Goldilocks problem , 2007, International Journal of Astrobiology.

[523]  Biological effects of gamma-ray bursts: distances for severe damage on the biota , 2005, International Journal of Astrobiology.

[524]  A. Robock,et al.  Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals : Still catastrophic consequences , 2007 .

[525]  Mark Setterfield,et al.  What is Endogenous Growth Theory , 2007 .

[526]  R. Falkenrath.  Confronting nuclear, biological and chemical terrorism , 2007 .

[527]  M. Malia.  The Soviet Tragedy: A History of Socialism in Russia , 2008 .

[528]  Inï¬uence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar ï¬ares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment , 2008 .

[529]  S. Barrett.  The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering , 2008 .

[530]  C. Chyba,et al.  Biotechnology and biosecurity , 2008 .

[531]  Markus Schmidt,et al.  Diffusion of synthetic biology: a challenge to biosafety , 2008, Systems and Synthetic Biology.

[532]  E. D. Kilbourne.  Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future , 2008 .

[533]  Bryan Caplan.  The Totalitarian Threat , 2008 .

[534]  Alan Harris,et al.  What Spaceguard did , 2008, Nature.

[535]  The continuing threat of nuclear war , 2008 .

[536]  P. Nel,et al.  Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict , 2008 .

[537]  Super-Volcanism and Other Geophysical Processes of Catastrophic Import , 2008 .

[538]  P. Schuck.  TWO CONCEPTIONS OF EMOTION IN RISK REGULATION , 2009 .

[539]  Martijn Gough.  Climate change , 2009, Canadian Medical Association Journal.

[540]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[541]  M. Cirkovic,et al.  Galactic punctuated equilibrium: how to undermine Carter's anthropic argument in astrobiology. , 2009, Astrobiology.

[542]  P. Escalante.  Tuberculosis , 1904, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[543]  Robert Carlson,et al.  The changing economics of DNA synthesis , 2009, Nature Biotechnology.

[544]  S. Kaveri,et al.  Tipping elements in the Earth System , 2010 .

[545]  Gareth Davies,et al.  Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty , 2010 .

[546]  Emily H. Chan,et al.  Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[547]  Sally Melissa Gainsbury.  Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets , 2010, International Gambling Studies.

[548]  After The Bomb , 2010 .

[549]  A. Robock,et al.  Local nuclear war, global suffering. , 2010, Scientific American.

[550]  Elisabetta Pierazzo,et al.  The Chicxulub Asteroid Impact and Mass Extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary , 2010, Science.

[551]  Mary E. Wilson,et al.  The Origin and Prevention of Pandemics , 2010, Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

[552]  L. Bachas,et al.  The Galactic Habitable Zone and the Age Distribution of Complex Life in the Milky Way , 2022 .

[553]  G.,et al.  Climate Response Times : Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing , 2022 .