Atmospheric transport of radioactive debris to Norway in case of a hypothetical accident related to the recovery of the Russian submarine K-27.

The Russian nuclear submarine K-27 suffered a loss of coolant accident in 1968 and with nuclear fuel in both reactors it was scuttled in 1981 in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay located on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The inventory of spent nuclear fuel on board the submarine is of concern because it represents a potential source of radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea and a criticality accident with potential for long-range atmospheric transport of radioactive particles cannot be ruled out. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impacts of potential releases in case a salvage operation is initiated, we assessed the atmospheric transport of radionuclides and deposition in Norway from a hypothetical criticality accident on board the K-27. To achieve this, a long term (33 years) meteorological database has been prepared and used for selection of the worst case meteorological scenarios for each of three selected locations of the potential accident. Next, the dispersion model SNAP was run with the source term for the worst-case accident scenario and selected meteorological scenarios. The results showed predictions to be very sensitive to the estimation of the source term for the worst-case accident and especially to the sizes and densities of released radioactive particles. The results indicated that a large area of Norway could be affected, but that the deposition in Northern Norway would be considerably higher than in other areas of the country. The simulations showed that deposition from the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical K-27 accident would be at least two orders of magnitude lower than the deposition observed in Norway following the Chernobyl accident.

[1]  Hilde Haakenstad,et al.  A high‐resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea , 2011 .

[2]  Jerzy Bartnicki,et al.  Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input , 1998 .

[3]  R. D. Foltz.  CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics:A Ready-Reference Book of Chemical and Physical Data , 2000 .

[4]  Koen Janssens,et al.  High energy X-ray microscopy for characterisation of fuel particles , 2001 .

[5]  P. Benes,et al.  Speciation of Radionuclides in the Environment , 1995 .

[6]  D. Oughton,et al.  Long-range tropospheric transport of uranium and plutonium weapons fallout from Semipalatinsk nuclear test site to Norway. , 2013, Environment international.

[7]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[8]  O. Lind,et al.  Radioactive Particles Released into the Environment from Nuclear Events , 2011 .

[9]  B J Howard,et al.  Spatial variation in the vulnerability of Norwegian Arctic counties to radiocaesium deposition. , 1997, The Science of the total environment.

[10]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[11]  Jørgen Saltbones.  Real-time dispersion model calculations as part of NORMEM-WP19 , 1995 .

[12]  Alexander Baklanov,et al.  Parameterisation of radionuclide deposition in atmospheric long-range transport modelling , 2001 .

[13]  Jerzy Bartnicki,et al.  A real time dispersion model for severe nuclear accidents, tested in the European tracer experiment , 1996 .

[14]  Jerzy Bartnicki,et al.  SEVERE NUCLEAR ACCIDENT PROGRAM (SNAP) A REAL TIME DISPERSION MODEL , 1996 .