Research and Assessment in the Twenty-First Century

Because thresholds for climatic triggers of environmental change are poorly understood, additional empirical data are needed to confirm thresholds, and research is needed to improve the accuracy of process modeling at different spatial scales. Understanding of stress complexes in forest ecosystems needs to be expanded to additional ecosystems, including better quantitative descriptions of stressor interactions. Priorities for future research and development include: (1) develop new approaches to understand the effects of elevated carbon dioxide in mature and diverse forests, (2) develop a standard approach for tracking carbon dynamics over space and time, (3) identify appropriate uses and limitations of remote sensing imagery for detecting climate change effects, (4) determine which long-term measurements are useful for tracking climate change effects, (5) identify standard approaches for evaluating uncertainty and risk, and (6) evaluate recently developed processes and tools for vulnerability assessment and adaptation to identify which ones are effective for “climate smart” management. These topics need to be framed at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales for different climate change issues, and the effects of land use on climate-ecosystem relationships need to be quantified at large spatial and temporal scales. Inferences about climate change effects will be more relevant if various land uses, including evaluation of future alternatives, are considered in a context that incorporates people and ecosystem services. Resource assessments will be more powerful if the work of stakeholders and scientists across the United States is integrated in an ongoing, continuous process by tracking climatic stressors, observing and projecting climate change effects within regions, and delivering data and Web-based products for decision making.