Recommendations for Development of Resilience-Based State-and-Transition Models

Abstract The objective of this paper is to recommend conceptual modifications for incorporation in state-and-transition models (STMs) to link this framework explicitly to the concept of ecological resilience. Ecological resilience describes the amount of change or disruption that is required to transform a system from being maintained by one set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures to a different set of processes and structures (e.g., an alternative stable state). In light of this concept, effective ecosystem management must focus on the adoption of management practices and policies that maintain or enhance ecological resilience to prevent stable states from exceeding thresholds. Resilience management does not exclusively focus on identifying thresholds per se, but rather on within-state dynamics that influence state vulnerability or proximity to thresholds. Resilience-based ecosystem management provides greater opportunities to incorporate adaptive management than does threshold-based management because thresholds emphasize limits of state resilience, rather than conditions that determine the probability that these limits will be surpassed. In an effort to further promote resilience-based management, we recommend that the STM framework explicitly describe triggers, at-risk communities, feedback mechanisms, and restoration pathways and develop process-specific indicators that enable managers to identify at-risk plant communities and potential restoration pathways. Two STMs representing different ecological conditions and geographic locations are presented to illustrate the incorporation and application of these recommendations. We anticipate that these recommendations will enable STMs to capture additional ecological information and contribute to improved ecosystem management by focusing attention on the maintenance of state resilience in addition to the anticipation of thresholds. Adoption of these recommendations may promote valuable dialogue between researchers and ecosystem managers regarding the general nature of ecosystem dynamics.

[1]  K. M. Havstada,et al.  A multi-scale classification of vegetation dynamics in arid lands : What is the right scale for models , monitoring , and restoration ? , 2006 .

[2]  Monica G. Turner,et al.  Ecological Thresholds: The Key to Successful Environmental Management or an Important Concept with No Practical Application? , 2006, Ecosystems.

[3]  C. S. Holling.  Surprise for Science, Resilience for Ecosystems, and Incentives for People , 1996 .

[4]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management , 2004 .

[5]  Brandon T Bestelmeyer,et al.  Soil-geomorphic heterogeneity governs patchy vegetation dynamics at an arid ecotone. , 2006, Ecology.

[6]  Thomas J. Valone,et al.  Timescale of Perennial Grass Recovery in Desertified Arid Grasslands Following Livestock Removal , 2002 .

[7]  Richard J. Hobbs,et al.  Identifying Linkages among Conceptual Models of Ecosystem Degradation and Restoration: Towards an Integrative Framework , 2006 .

[8]  Debra P. C. Peters,et al.  Spatial Variation in Remnant Grasses After a Grassland-to-Shrubland State Change: Implications for Restoration , 2006 .

[9]  B. Bestelmeyer,et al.  A multi-scale classification of vegetation dynamics in arid lands: What is the right scale for models, monitoring, and restoration? , 2006 .

[10]  C. Folke.  RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES , 2006 .

[11]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social–ecological Systems , 2004 .

[12]  J. Wilson,et al.  Positive-feedback Switches in Plant Communities , 1992 .

[13]  E. M. Bennett,et al.  A Systems Model Approach to Determining Resilience Surrogates for Case Studies , 2005, Ecosystems.

[14]  D. Briske,et al.  State-and-Transition Models, Thresholds, and Rangeland Health: A Synthesis of Ecological Concepts and Perspectives , 2005 .

[15]  Brandon T Bestelmeyer,et al.  Land Management in the American Southwest: A State-and-Transition Approach to Ecosystem Complexity , 2004, Environmental management.

[16]  J F Reynolds,et al.  Biological Feedbacks in Global Desertification , 1990, Science.

[17]  D. Peters,et al.  Disentangling Complex Landscapes: New Insights into Arid and Semiarid System Dynamics , 2006 .

[18]  M. Friedel.  Range condition assessment and the concept of thresholds: a viewpoint. , 1991 .

[19]  D. N. Ueckert,et al.  Redberry juniper-herbaceous understory interactions. , 1995 .

[20]  K. Gross,et al.  Alternative states and positive feedbacks in restoration ecology. , 2004, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[21]  C. S. Holling.  Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[22]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[23]  B. Bestelmeyer.  Threshold Concepts and Their Use in Rangeland Management and Restoration: The Good, the Bad, and the Insidious , 2006 .

[24]  César Mario Rostagno,et al.  Soil Erosion Thresholds and Alternative States in Northeastern Patagonian Rangelands , 2006 .

[25]  M. Westoby,et al.  Opportunistic management for rangelands not at equilibrium. , 1989 .

[26]  R. Nowak,et al.  Effect of Pinyon–Juniper Tree Cover on the Soil Seed Bank , 2008 .

[27]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation , 2003 .

[28]  D. Haydon,et al.  Alternative stable states in ecology , 2003 .

[29]  D. Briske,et al.  Vegetation dynamics on rangelands: a critique of the current paradigms , 2003 .

[30]  I. Watson,et al.  Event-Driven or Continuous; Which Is the Better Model for Managers? , 1996 .

[31]  Steven Gerald Whisenant,et al.  Repairing Damaged Wildlands – a Process Orientated, Landscape-Scale Approach , 1999, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[32]  Jeffrey E. Herrick,et al.  Fragmentation Effects on Soil Aggregate Stability in a Patchy Arid Grassland , 2006 .

[33]  L. Gunderson.  Ecological Resilience—In Theory and Application , 2000 .

[34]  William,et al.  State and transition modeling : An ecological process approach , 2003 .

[35]  Graeme S. Cumming,et al.  An Exploratory Framework for the Empirical Measurement of Resilience , 2005, Ecosystems.

[36]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale , 1998, Ecosystems.

[37]  David D. Briske,et al.  A Unified Framework for Assessment and Application of Ecological Thresholds , 2006 .

[38]  Kazuhiko Takeuchi,et al.  Threshold changes in vegetation along a grazing gradient in Mongolian rangelands , 2007 .

[39]  Tamzen K. Stringham,et al.  Infiltration, Runoff, and Sediment Yield in Response to Western Juniper Encroachment in Southeast Oregon , 2008 .

[40]  B. Bestelmeyer,et al.  Development and use of state-and-transition models for rangelands. , 2003 .

[41]  Julio L. Betancourt,et al.  APPLIED HISTORICAL ECOLOGY: USING THE PAST TO MANAGE FOR THE FUTURE , 1999 .

[42]  Craig R. Allen,et al.  The Use of Discontinuities and Functional Groups to Assess Relative Resilience in Complex Systems , 2005, Ecosystems.