Nearest neighbours for avalanche forecasting in Scotland—development, verification and optimisation of a model

This paper describes a nearest neighbours model used operationally for avalanche forecasting in Scotland. Results are presented as contingency tables and in terms of a range of categorical statistics suggesting that the model performs well in comparison with other models, although avalanche events are overforecast. Genetic algorithms are described as a technique for calculating variable weights and shown to provide an effective mechanism for objectively calculating weights. The model is discussed in the context of conventional avalanche forecasting, and it is proposed that the range of visualisations provided to the user can facilitate hypothesis testing.

[1]  David Beasley,et al.  An overview of genetic algorithms: Part 1 , 1993 .

[2]  Ross Purves,et al.  Cornice - Development of a Nearest Neighbours Model Applied in Backcountry Avalanche Forecasting in Scotland , 2002 .

[3]  P. Bartelt,et al.  A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part I: numerical model , 2002 .

[4]  Othmar Buser,et al.  Avalanche forecast with the method of nearest neighbours: An interactive approach , 1983 .

[5]  Erik T. Ray,et al.  Learning XML , 2001 .

[6]  Andreas Stoffel,et al.  RAIFoS: Regional Avalanche Information and Forecasting System , 2001 .

[7]  O. Buser,et al.  Two Years Experience of Operational Avalanche Forecasting using the Nearest Neighbours Method , 1989, Annals of Glaciology.

[8]  D. Mcclung,et al.  New Perspective on Computer-Aided Avalanche Forecasting: Scale and Scale Issues , 2000 .

[9]  Alan Jenkins,et al.  Seasonal snowpack influence on the hydrology of a sub-arctic catchment in Scotland , 1997 .

[10]  J. S. Barton.  Weather observations on Cairn Gorm summit 1979-86 , 1987 .

[11]  Richard Aspinall,et al.  A Probabilistic Technique for Exploring Multi-Scale Spatial Patterns in Historical Avalanche Data By Combining GIS and Meteorological Nearest Neighbors with an Example from the Jackson Hole Ski Area , 2002 .

[12]  Bull,et al.  An Overview of Genetic Algorithms: Part 2, Research Topics , 1993 .

[13]  Gilbert Guyomarc'h,et al.  A French Local Tool for Avalanche Hazard Forecasting: Astral, Current State and New Developments , 2002 .

[14]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction , 1995 .

[15]  Edward R. LaChapelle.  The Fundamental Processes in Conventional Alavalanche Forecasting , 1980 .

[16]  Jürg Schweizer,et al.  Avalanche forecasting : an expert system approach , 1996 .

[17]  E. Brun,et al.  A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting , 1992, Journal of Glaciology.

[18]  D. Mcclung,et al.  Numerical avalanche prediction: Kootenay Pass, British Columbia, Canada , 1994, Journal of Glaciology.

[19]  D. Mcclung,et al.  The Avalanche Handbook , 1993 .

[20]  E. Martin,et al.  A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting , 1999, Journal of Glaciology.