A MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH ELASTIC TRADE COEFFICIENTS FOR THE SIMULATION OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND IN ITALY

A multi regional input-output (MRIO) model for simulating the level and distribution of freight demand is presented. The linear equations of the model are stated. Different data sources were combined to estimate their parameters, including technical coefficients, components of final demand, and trade coefficients. A formula is given for calculating inter-regional trade flows. A multinomial logit model is used to estimate the elastic trade coefficients; it is calibrated using an aggregate approach. To apply the freight demand model to different evolution scenarios, the final demand and imports, corresponding to the scenarios, are needed for each sector and each region. A system of ad-hoc models had to be developed, to obtain consistent scenarios for input variables and freight demand forecasts. This system was created by integrating the MRIO model with a multi-region demographic model, a model for estimating private consumption, and a model for estimating regional employment levels. This model system provided inputs, not only for the freight demand model, but also for a passenger demand model, which this paper does not consider. The model system was applied to obtain long-term scenarios for freight demand for Italy, over 1995-2025, subdivided into the periods 1995-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2025. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 889965.