Minimising carbon emissions and energy expended for electricity generation in New Zealand through to 2050

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) analysis are combined to investigate the feasibility of New Zealand reaching and maintaining a renewables electricity target above 90% through to 2050, while also increasing electricity generation at an annual rate of 1.5% while allowing for a 50% switch to plug in electric vehicle transportation for personal use vehicles. Under this scenario NZ’s electricity demand is anticipated to reach a maximum of between 70 and 75TWh by 2050. If NZ is carbon emissions constrained to 1990 levels, to minimise energy expended, electricity growth will predominantly come from wind (18TWh) and geothermal (13TWh), and hydro (5.6TWh) to a lesser extent. Renewables resources will produce nearly 95% of electricity generation. The analysis demonstrates that NZ is in a very good position to sustainably meet their future electricity needs while maintaining very low carbon emissions levels and economically desirable EROI levels.

[1]  Martin John Atkins,et al.  CARBON EMISSIONS PINCH ANALYSIS (CEPA) FOR EMISSIONS REDUCTION IN THE NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY SECTOR , 2010 .

[2]  Ajay K. Gupta,et al.  A Review of the Past and Current State of EROI Data , 2011 .

[3]  Anita Rønne,et al.  Energy security : managing risk in a dynamic legal and regulatory environment , 2004 .

[4]  Santanu Bandyopadhyay,et al.  Emission constrained power system planning: a pinch analysis based study of Indian electricity sector , 2013, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[5]  Daniel Weißbach,et al.  Energy intensities, EROIs (energy returned on invested), and energy payback times of electricity generating power plants , 2013 .

[6]  Raymond R. Tan,et al.  Targeting for carbon sequestration retrofit planning in the power generation sector for multi-period problems , 2014 .

[7]  Adam R. Brandt,et al.  A General Mathematical Framework for Calculating Systems-Scale Efficiency of Energy Extraction and Conversion: Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and Other Energy Return Ratios , 2011 .

[8]  K. Mulder,et al.  Energy Return on Investment: Toward a Consistent Framework , 2008, Ambio.

[9]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Cost and performance of fossil fuel power plants with CO2 capture and storage , 2007 .

[10]  Runar Unnthorsson,et al.  Energy return on investment of hydroelectric power generation calculated using a standardised methodology , 2014 .

[11]  W. E. Bardsley.  Note on the pumped storage potential of the onslow-manorburn depression, New Zealand , 2005 .

[12]  Bodo Linnhoff,et al.  Targeting for CO2 emissions for Total Sites , 1993 .

[13]  Amory B. Lovins,et al.  Renewable Energy's ‘Footprint’ Myth , 2011 .

[14]  Daniel Weisser,et al.  A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies , 2007 .

[15]  G. P. Robertson,et al.  Water and energy footprints of bioenergy crop production on marginal lands , 2011 .

[16]  Toshko Zhelev,et al.  Emissions targeting and planning: An application of CO2 emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) to the Irish electricity generation sector , 2008 .

[17]  Denny K. S. Ng,et al.  Carbon Constrained Energy Planning (CCEP) for Sustainable Power Generation Sector with Automated Targeting Model , 2013 .

[18]  Dominic C.Y. Foo,et al.  Pinch analysis approach to carbon-constrained energy sector planning , 2007 .

[19]  Charles A. S. Hall,et al.  Year in review—EROI or energy return on (energy) invested , 2010, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[20]  C. Hall,et al.  Energy and Resource Quality: The Ecology of the Economic Process , 1992 .

[21]  Philip Ball.  France’s nuclear power program continues in force , 2011 .

[22]  Cheng-Liang Chen,et al.  A unified model for the deployment of carbon capture and storage , 2014 .

[23]  Denny K. S. Ng,et al.  Carbon and footprint-constrained energy planning using cascade analysis technique , 2008 .

[24]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Identifying Cost-Effective CO2 Control Levels for Amine-Based CO2 Capture Systems , 2006 .

[25]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  Do Hydroelectric Dams Mitigate Global Warming? The Case of Brazil's CuruÁ-una Dam , 2005 .

[26]  Denny K. S. Ng,et al.  Extended pinch targeting techniques for carbon-constrained energy sector planning , 2009 .

[27]  D. J. Murphy,et al.  The implications of the declining energy return on investment of oil production , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.