Using simulation to determine the signature data distribution of a given CASTFOREM scenario

A segment of the modeling and simulation community and key decision makers still hold to the misconception that a vehicle can have a single or a representative thermal "signature" for a given scenario-such as daytime summer or night time summer. In truth, a vehicle in a "daytime summer Northeast Asia" scenario can manifest many different types of detectabilities and signature manifestations throughout the day and under differing weather conditions. A reasonable approach toward representing a vehicle's signature characteristics would be to understand that data spread and choose the best value or values that address the question asked of a particular simulation. The Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) is moving towards addressing this problem and is seeking to use modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools to populate its databases in a reasonable manner. Using the latest M&S tools, the authors will present unclassified results of measurements and simulations demonstrating this data spread and the resulting CASTFOREM sensitivity analysis. Images and the Delta T-RSS metric will be used to demonstrate the concept of the data distribution. By moving toward the signature data spread mentality, the research and development community can help the sensor and operations community pick the appropriate values for particular analyses--even for vehicles that are in the concept design phase.