Pharmaceutical innovation between scientific opportunities and economic constraints

New drugs are only developed when sales expectations appear to match the rising expenditures for development. The repertoire of diseases that are seriously addressed by large pharmaceutical companies is shrinking. Genomics offers the promise of inventing and developing more selective therapies for a large number of diseases, but such increases in selectivity almost inevitably lead to therapeutics aimed at smaller patient populations. Scientific opportunity on the one hand and economic constraints on the other are forcing pharmaceutical R&D in different directions. This study tries to quantify the problem and to identify mechanisms through which the apparent conflict may be resolved.