Predictive value of repeated F-18 FDG PET/CT parameters changes during preoperative chemoradiotherapy to predict pathologic response and overall survival in locally advanced esophageal adenocarcinoma patients

AbstractIntroduction The goal of the current study was to investigate the predictive and prognostic values of repeated F-18 FDG PET/CT parameter changes for prediction of complete pathologic response (pCR) in patients with adenocarcinoma of locally advanced esophageal cancer (LAEC) who received preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (PCRT).MethodsA total 53 patients with LAEC patients were included in the current study. All patients were evaluated by F-18 FDG PET/CT before and during chemoradiotherapy. The percent changes (∆, %) in F-18 FDG PET/CT parameters were used to predict pCR and to calculate overall survival (OS). The predictive value for pCR of F-18 FDG PET/CT cutoff values was determined by ROC analysis. The prognostic significance was assessed using Kaplan–Meier analysis.ResultspCR occurred in 15 patients (28.3 %). When ΔSUVmax > 23.5 % was used as cutoff, the sensitivity and specificity of F-18 FDG PET/CT for prediction of pCR were 100 % and 52.6, respectively. The AUC was 0.750 (95 % CI; 0.612–0.859), and standard error (SE) was 0.0633 (p = 0.0002). ΔMTV resulted in 80 % sensitivity, 76.3 % specificity, and 0.731 AUC (95 % CI; 0.591–0.843, SE = 0.077, p = 0.0027) for cutoff values >25.5 %. When ΔTLG > 44.8 % was used as cutoff, the sensitivity and specificity of F-18 FDG PET/CT for prediction of pCR were 100 and 65.8 %, respectively. The AUC was 0.893 (95 % CI; 0.777–0.961), and SE was 0.0431 (p < 0.0001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that high ΔSUVmax, ΔMTV, and ΔTLG were associated with improved OS.ConclusionIn conclusion, the current study shows the capability of the changes (Δ) in repeated F-18 FDG PET/CT parameters to predict the achievement of pCR during PCRT in LAEC patients. Among the parameters, the ΔSUVmax, ΔMTV, and ΔTLG were predictors for pCR and well associated with OS.