Modeling the Hurricane Evacuation Response Curve

The objective of this study is to develop a hurricane evacuation response curve that is sensitive to the characteristics of the hurricane, the time of day, and the type and timing of evacuation notice issued. Two data sets from past hurricanes, Floyd in South Carolina and Andrew in southeastern Louisiana, were used for model development and testing. A model developed on the Hurricane Floyd data set produced plausible results when it was tested with a series of storm scenarios and different evacuation notice policies. The same model predicted evacuation response behavior for Hurricane Andrew that was similar to observed behavior.