A Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map Model in Short-Term Load Forecasting

This paper proposes a novel neural model to the problem of short-term load forecasting. The neural model is made up of two self-organizing map nets – one on top of the other. It has been successfully applied to domains in which the context information given by former events plays a primary role. The model was trained and assessed on load data extracted from a Brazilian electric utility. It was required to predict once every hour the electric load during the next 24 hours. The paper presents the results, and evaluates them.

[1]  Robert J. Marks,et al.  Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural network , 1991 .

[2]  Z.-P. Lo,et al.  Improved rate of convergence in Kohonen neural network , 1991, IJCNN-91-Seattle International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[3]  John G. Taylor,et al.  The temporal Kohönen map , 1993, Neural Networks.

[4]  A. J. Germond,et al.  Application of the Kohonen network to short-term load forecasting , 1993, [1993] Proceedings of the Second International Forum on Applications of Neural Networks to Power Systems.

[5]  Risto Miikkulainen,et al.  SARDNET: A Self-Organizing Feature Map for Sequences , 1994, NIPS.

[6]  Shangyou Hao,et al.  An implementation of a neural network based load forecasting model for the EMS , 1994 .

[7]  Osama A. Mohammed,et al.  Practical experiences with an adaptive neural network short-term load forecasting system , 1995 .

[8]  Rey-Chue Hwang,et al.  An adaptive modular artificial neural network hourly load forecaster and its implementation at electric utilities , 1995 .

[9]  Michael T. Manry,et al.  Comparison of very short-term load forecasting techniques , 1996 .

[10]  S. J. Kiartzis,et al.  A neural network short term load forecasting model for the Greek power system , 1996 .

[11]  Vladimir Cherkassky,et al.  Learning from data , 1998 .

[12]  Otávio Augusto S. Carpinteiro A hierarchical self-organizing map model for sequence recognition , 1998 .

[13]  Alireza Khotanzad,et al.  ANNSTLF-Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster- generation three , 1998 .

[14]  A Hierarchical Self-orginising Map Model for Sequence Recognition , 2000, Pattern Analysis & Applications.

[15]  Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi,et al.  Enhancing Neural Network Based Load Forecasting Via Preprocessing , 2001 .

[16]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  Self-Organizing Maps, Third Edition , 2001, Springer Series in Information Sciences.

[17]  Carlos E. Pedreira,et al.  Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: a review and evaluation , 2001 .