TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON PRICE-VOLUME SIGNALS AND THE POWER OF TRADING BREAKS

We propose a novel stock market model and investigate the effectiveness of trading breaks. Our nonlinear model consists of two types of traders: while fundamentalists expect prices to return towards their intrinsic values, chartists extrapolate past price movements into the future. Moreover, chartists condition their orders on past trading volume. The model is able to replicate several stylized facts of stock markets such as fat tails and volatility clustering. Using the model as an artificial stock market laboratory we find that trading breaks have the power to reduce volatility and — if fundamentals do not move too strongly — also mispricing.

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