Measuring the impact of large‐scale transportation projects on land price using spatial statistical models*

. Large‐scale transportation projects such as the construction of a commuter railway accessible to metropolises have a significant regional impact. This study attempts to measure this impact using spatial statistical models and land price data. First, dynamic changes in the land price are analysed and the so‐called announcement effect is presented using the spatial interpolation techniques. Second, various types of land price models are constructed by employing the existing methods of spatial econometrics and geostatistics; their estimates and project benefits are compared and discussed, particularly from the viewpoint of policy implications. Resumen. Los proyectos de transporte de gran escala tales como la construccion de un tren suburbano de acceso a una metropolis tienen un impacto regional significativo. Este estudio intenta medir este impacto utilizando modelos estadisticos espaciales y datos del precio del suelo. Primero, se analizan cambios dinamicos en el precio del suelo y se presenta el llamado efecto de anuncio utilizando tecnicas de interpolacion espacial. Segundo, se construyen varios tipos de modelos de precio del suelo mediante el empleo de metodos existentes de econometria espacial y geoestadistica; se comparan y discuten sus estimaciones y los beneficios del proyecto, en particular desde el punto de vista de sus implicaciones politicas.

[1]  Steven Farber,et al.  Moving Window Approaches for Hedonic Price Estimation: An Empirical Comparison of Modelling Techniques , 2008 .

[2]  M. D. Ugarte,et al.  Alternative Models for Describing Spatial Dependence among Dwelling Selling Prices , 2004 .

[3]  James P. LeSage,et al.  “Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics” , 2015 .

[4]  P. Diggle,et al.  Model‐based geostatistics , 2007 .

[5]  S. Rosen.  Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition , 1974, Journal of Political Economy.

[6]  Helen R. Neill,et al.  Estimating the Effect of Air Quality: Spatial versus Traditional Hedonic Price Models , 2007 .

[7]  J. LeSage.  Introduction to spatial econometrics , 2009 .

[8]  K. Ord.  Estimation Methods for Models of Spatial Interaction , 1975 .

[9]  C. F. Sirmans,et al.  Apartment Rent Prediction Using Spatial Modeling , 2006 .

[10]  Aysegul Can.  Specification and estimation of hedonic housing price models , 1992 .

[11]  Noel A Cressie,et al.  Statistics for Spatial Data, Revised Edition. , 1994 .

[12]  L. Anselin,et al.  Measuring the benefits of air quality improvement: a spatial hedonic approach , 1998 .

[13]  Vera Pawlowsky-Glahn,et al.  Kriging Regionalized Positive Variables Revisited: Sample Space and Scale Considerations , 2007 .

[14]  David M. Brasington,et al.  Demand for Environmental Quality: A Spatial Hedonic Analysis , 2005 .

[15]  Noel A. C. Cressie,et al.  Statistics for Spatial Data: Cressie/Statistics , 1993 .

[16]  H. Kelejian,et al.  A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances , 1998 .

[17]  Carol A. Gotway,et al.  Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis , 2004 .

[18]  N. Cressie.  Fitting variogram models by weighted least squares , 1985 .

[19]  Suriatini Ismail,et al.  Spatial Autocorrelation and Real Estate Studies:A Literature Review , 2006 .

[20]  Wolfgang Polasek,et al.  Spatial interaction of crime incidents in Japan , 2008, Math. Comput. Simul..

[21]  J. Keith Ord,et al.  Spatial Processes Models and Applications , 1981 .

[22]  L. Anselin.  Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models , 1988 .

[23]  Luc Anselin,et al.  Interpolation of Air Quality Measures in Hedonic House Price Models: Spatial Aspects , 2006 .

[24]  J. Geweke,et al.  Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model , 1993 .

[25]  J. LeSage.  Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models , 1997 .

[26]  Harry H. Kelejian,et al.  A suggested method of estimation for spatial interdependent models with autocorrelated errors, and an application to a county expenditure model , 1993 .

[27]  R. Dubin.  Spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood quality , 1992 .

[28]  Luc Anselin,et al.  Errors in variables and spatial effects in hedonic house price models of ambient air quality , 2008 .

[29]  Chung Yim Edward Yiu,et al.  The Effects of Expected Transport Improvements on Housing Prices , 2005 .