Land-use and land-cover change shape the sustainability and impacts of protected areas

Significance Emerging evidence shows that the boundaries of protected areas (PAs) and their level of protection regularly change, yet little is known regarding the underlying causes of these legal changes and their impacts on ecosystems. For PA degazettements (i.e., protection removals) in the state of Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon we show that the PAs less effective in stemming deforestation are more likely to be degazetted. For those already deforested PAs degazettement had limited, if any, additional impact on deforestation. Consistent with the scientific literature recognizing that governance shapes conservation outcomes, governance that improves PA outcomes also improves their legal durability. Our evidence on such relationships suggests directions for research and the need for policymakers to reexamine conventional wisdom regarding PAs. Protected areas (PAs) remain the dominant policy to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services but have been shown to have limited impact when development interests force them to locations with lower deforestation pressure. Far less known is that such interests also cause widespread tempering, reduction, or removal of protection [i.e., PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD)]. We inform responses to PADDD by proposing and testing a bargaining explanation for PADDD risks and deforestation impacts. We examine recent degazettements for hydropower development and rural settlements in the state of Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon. Results support two hypotheses: (i) ineffective PAs (i.e., those where internal deforestation was similar to nearby rates) were more likely to be degazetted and (ii) degazettement of ineffective PAs caused limited, if any, additional deforestation. We also report on cases in which ineffective portions were upgraded. Overall our results suggest that enhancing PAs’ ecological impacts enhances their legal durability.

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