Forecasting number of ISO 14001 certifications in the Americas using ARIMA models

The ISO 14001 standard has been showing increasing importance for environmental management in organizations worldwide. Predicting the behaviour of the number of certifications in the coming years is an important strategy for planning and organizational management. Accordingly, this work aimed to adjust forecast models for the number of certifications in the Americas and their countries over the next two years, 2016 and 2017. The study was conducted with data of ISO 14001 certifications on the continent and its 13 countries with the highest number of certifications between 1996 and 2015. The Box & Jenkins methodology was applied in the adjustment of the forecast models for the annual data series. The ARIMA models adjusted to the ISO 14001 series showed a downward trend in the number of certifications in the Americas predicting, respectively, 17,467 and 16,805 certificates issued in the years 2016 and 2017. A downward could also happen in Canada and Colombia. Brazil, Mexico and the United States have a growth trend in the number of new certifications. These results suggest a reduction in the number of certifications, but also suggest that the leading countries in number of ISO 14001 certifications should remain interested in implementing the standard in coming years.

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