Research on identifying the rear-end conflict risk of highway*

As the increasing of automobiles, tremendous information on roads need to be deal with, which has become the challenge for the efficiency of the intelligent transportation system. This paper is aimed to improve the efficiency for identifying the risk of conflict in highway and propose an analysis method through a new vision to analyze the car-following safety of highway based on traffic conflict technology instead of historical accident data. Firstly, a term “vehicle-group” is introduced and the algorithm identifying their ranges is presented. And then the risk measurement model for vehicles’ rear-end collision is studied based on time-to-collision (TTC) method. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed model is confirmed by using a case study based on VISSIM simulation. The results show that the screening scope of potential risk can be reduced by identifying the vehicle-groups, which will improve the efficiency of identifying the danger in highway. And this also could provide significant information for the prevention or early warning of chain rear-end collision on roads. Meanwhile, this study has provided a new idea and method for road traffic safety analysis and evaluation research, which will enrich the theory of traffic conflict technology.