War and Tolerance

Within what theoretical framework the primordialist versus the instrumentalist orien­ tation can ethnic mobilization and conflict best be explained? Having in mind the debates in connection with the dissolution of Yugoslavia, in our paper we address the question did an increase in ethnic tensions and subsequent armed conflict between the parties follow the in­ crease in ethnic intolerance? Or, did ethnic intolerance increase as a consequence of the con­ flict itself. The first result would be more in accordance with the primordialist view. The second is what would be expected from the instrumentalist one. In order to answer the question we used three sets of survey data collected in Croatia in 1985, 1989 and 1996. The period be­ tween the first two surveys was one of rising tensions; the “explosion ” and open armed conflict followed (1991-1995). The third survey was done in the inital period of peace. Our conclusion is that intolerance did not precede but rather followed the outbursts of war and the atrocities connected with it. Therefore we argue that our findings are more in ac­ cordance with instrumentalist than with piimordialist theories. Nevertheless, our analysis serves only to discredit primordialism rather than providing instrumentalism to be the best ex­ plana toiy theoiy for the Balkans' conflicts.