A multi-scale symmetry analysis of uninterrupted trends returns in daily financial indices

We present a symmetry analysis of the distribution of variations of different financial indices, by means of a statistical procedure developed by the authors based on a symmetry statistic by Einmahl and Mckeague. We applied this statistical methodology to financial uninterrupted daily trends returns and to other derived observable. In our opinion, to study distributional symmetry, trends returns offer more advantages than the commonly used daily financial returns; the two most important being: 1) Trends returns involve sampling over different time scales and 2) By construction, this variable time series contains practically the same number of non-negative and negative entry values. We also show that these time multi-scale returns display distributional bi-modality. Daily financial indices analyzed in this work, are the Mexican IPC, the American DJIA, DAX from Germany and the Japanese Market index Nikkei, covering a time period from 11-08-1991 to 06-30-2017. We show that, at the time scale resolution and significance considered in this paper, it is almost always feasible to find an interval of possible symmetry points containing one most plausible symmetry point denoted by C. Finally, we study the temporal evolution of C showing that this point is seldom zero and responds with sensitivity to extreme market events.

[1]  W. L. Beedles,et al.  On the Asymmetry of Market Returns , 1979, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[2]  Clarice W. Arns,et al.  Presence of Vaccine-Derived Newcastle Disease Viruses in Wild Birds , 2016, PloS one.

[3]  Dariusz Grech,et al.  Asymmetry of price returns—Analysis and perspectives from a non-extensive statistical physics point of view , 2017, PloS one.

[4]  Frustration driven stock market dynamics: Leverage effect and asymmetry , 2007 .

[5]  M. Graczyk,et al.  Intraday Seasonalities and Nonstationarity of Trading Volume in Financial Markets: Individual and Cross-Sectional Features , 2016, PloS one.

[6]  Amado Peiró Asymmetries and tails in stock index returns: are their distributions really asymmetric? , 2004 .

[7]  Assessing symmetry of financial returns series , 2007, physics/0701189.

[8]  Jørgen Vitting Andersen,et al.  Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market , 2015, PloS one.

[9]  R. Radcliffe,et al.  A Note on Measurement of Skewness , 1974, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[11]  Z. Néda,et al.  Time-scale effects on the gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices. , 2016, Physical review. E.

[12]  Coronel Brizio,et al.  Regression tests of fit and some comparisons , 1994 .

[13]  D. Sornette Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises , 2009, 0907.4290.

[14]  L. K. Hotta,et al.  THE LEVERAGE EFFECT AND THE ASYMMETRY OF THE ERROR DISTRIBUTION IN GARCH-BASED MODELS: THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN MARKET RELATED SERIES , 2014 .

[15]  Xiong-Fei Jiang,et al.  Time-reversal asymmetry in financial systems , 2013, 1308.0669.

[16]  K. Prause The Generalized Hyperbolic Model: Estimation, Financial Derivatives, and Risk Measures , 1999 .

[17]  J. Imhof Computing the distribution of quadratic forms in normal variables , 1961 .

[18]  H. Takayasu,et al.  Detection of statistical asymmetries in non-stationary sign time series: Analysis of foreign exchange data , 2017, PloS one.

[19]  I. Vetter,et al.  Discovery and mode of action of a novel analgesic β-toxin from the African spider Ceratogyrus darlingi , 2017, PloS one.

[20]  Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial markets , 2000, cond-mat/0002438.

[21]  Honggang Li,et al.  Investors’ risk attitudes and stock price fluctuation asymmetry , 2011 .

[22]  Asset returns and volatility clustering in financial time series , 2010, 1002.0284.

[23]  N. Kaldor Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth , 1961 .

[24]  J. Durbin Distribution theory for tests based on the sample distribution function , 1973 .

[25]  J. P. BfflOF Computing the distribution of quadratic forms in normal variables , 2005 .

[26]  R. F.,et al.  Mathematical Statistics , 1944, Nature.

[27]  I. McKeague,et al.  Empirical likelihood based hypothesis testing , 2003 .

[28]  H. F. Coronel-Brizio,et al.  On fitting the Pareto-Levy distribution to stock market index data: selecting a suitable cutoff value , 2004, cond-mat/0411161.

[29]  R. Cont Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues , 2001 .

[30]  H. F. Coronel-Brizio,et al.  Analysis of short term price trends in daily stock-market index data , 2012, 1211.3060.

[31]  Amado Peiró Skewness in financial returns , 1999 .

[32]  MODELLING VOLATILITY: SYMMETRIC OR ASYMMETRIC GARCH MODELS? , 2015 .

[33]  J. Bouchaud,et al.  Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management , 2011 .

[34]  Gain–loss asymmetry for emerging stock markets , 2007 .

[35]  L. Hansen,et al.  CHAPTER 1 Operator Methods for Continuous-Time Markov Processes , 2004 .

[36]  Ingve Simonsen,et al.  Inverse statistics in economics: the gain–loss asymmetry , 2002 .