Intraseasonal variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific simulated by a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model

Thirty-one successive daily experiments for extended-range (30 day) forecasts are conducted using a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model without convective parameterization. The model successfully reproduces tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) in six out of eight cases in the western North Pacific in August 2004, up to 2 weeks prior to cyclone formation. Detailed analyses reveal that Typhoon Songda's genesis is related to the eastward extension of the monsoon trough associated with the intraseasonal variability (ISV). The successful simulation of the migration and extension of the monsoon trough leads to a 2 week forecast for Songda's genesis. These findings highlight the need for a model capable of predicting the modulation of large-scale fields by ISV for TCG forecasts and that a global nonhydrostatic cloud-system-resolving model is a promising tool for TCG forecasts.

[1]  R. Atlas,et al.  Predicting tropical cyclogenesis with a global mesoscale model: Hierarchical multiscale interactions during the formation of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) , 2010 .

[2]  Hirofumi Tomita,et al.  A new dynamical framework of nonhydrostatic global model using the icosahedral grid , 2004 .

[3]  Hiroaki Miura,et al.  Global cloud‐system‐resolving model NICAM successfully simulated the lifecycles of two real tropical cyclones , 2008 .

[4]  H. Tomita,et al.  Importance of the subgrid-scale turbulent moist process: Cloud distribution in global cloud-resolving simulations , 2010 .

[5]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection , 2007 .

[6]  P. Hsu,et al.  Extended‐range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden‐Julian Oscillation , 2011 .

[7]  C. J. Neumann,et al.  The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone data. , 2010 .

[8]  Masaki Satoh,et al.  The Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008): Environmental Modulation and Numerical Predictability , 2010 .

[9]  Tetsuo Nakazawa,et al.  Intraseasonal Variations of OLR in the Tropics During the FGGE Year , 1986 .

[10]  Hirofumi Tomita,et al.  Madden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer , 2014, Nature Communications.

[11]  Steven J. Woolnough,et al.  The Effects of Explicit versus Parameterized Convection on the MJO in a Large-Domain High-Resolution Tropical Case Study. Part I: Characterization of Large-Scale Organization and Propagation* , 2013 .

[12]  Masaki Satoh,et al.  Ensemble Simulation of Cyclone Nargis by a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model—Modulation of Cyclogenesis by the Madden-Julian Oscillation , 2010 .

[13]  B. Liebmann,et al.  Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset , 1996 .

[14]  Tomoe Nasuno,et al.  The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[15]  H. Niino,et al.  An Improved Mellor–Yamada Level-3 Model with Condensation Physics: Its Design and Verification , 2004 .

[16]  Jun Yoshimura,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20 km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses , 2006 .

[17]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[18]  H. Ishikawa,et al.  Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Environment of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific , 2014 .

[19]  Hirofumi Tomita,et al.  New Microphysical Schemes with Five and Six Categories by Diagnostic Generation of Cloud Ice , 2008 .

[20]  A. Sobel,et al.  Diagnosis of the MJO Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using an Empirical Index , 2009 .

[21]  S. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-25 Reanalysis , 2007 .

[22]  Bin Wang,et al.  Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975–1985 , 1990 .

[23]  Teruyuki Nakajima,et al.  A k-distribution-based radiation code and its computational optimization for an atmospheric general circulation model , 2008 .

[24]  Xiaosu Xie,et al.  A Model for the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation , 1997 .

[25]  Elizabeth A. Ritchie,et al.  Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific , 1999 .

[26]  Tetsuo Nakazawa,et al.  Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity and Typhoon Landfall on Japan in 2004 , 2006 .

[27]  A. Robertson,et al.  Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project: bridging the gap between weather and climate , 2012 .

[28]  Bin Wang,et al.  Climate variation and prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific , 2008 .

[29]  Masaki Satoh,et al.  Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..

[30]  Takemasa Miyoshi,et al.  The Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model: description and development , 2014, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science.

[31]  P. R. Julian,et al.  Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period , 1972 .

[32]  Hiroaki Miura,et al.  A Simulated Preconditioning of Typhoon Genesis Controlled by a Boreal Summer Madden-Julian Oscillation Event in a Global Cloud-system-resolving Model , 2009 .