GENERATING HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RISK PROFILES ON RAILROAD ROUTES

A risk estimation approach is described for generating a risk profile of the rail transportation of any hazardous material on any route. The approach emphasizes the risk attributable to accidents involving large releases (i.e., derailments and collisions on main lines and in yards). Risk profiles for various hazardous materials or for various routes can be combined. The approach makes use of a specially derived model for the probability distribution of the number of cars experiencing a release in such an accident. As an illustration this model is applied to a route on which chlorine and liquefied petroleum gas are transported. The approach also relies on a number of consequence models for the various scenarios under which the hazardous materials of interest may be released in an accident. The effects described by these models are combined with the population exposure estimates in the illustration in order to estimate the associated fatality levels.