Integrating engineering, economic, and social modeling in risks of cascading failures across interdependent complex networks

Planning for electric power reliability and recovery from catastrophic failures requires knowledge of the interdependencies between electrical systems and the economic and social systems mat they serve. To date, however, such planning has been conducted in an atomistic fashion, with little recognition that system interdependencies have major effects on benefits and costs of catastrophic failures. This paper stresses the need to integrate social, economic and engineering modeling in the risk assessment and management of cascading failures leading to blackouts. Evaluation of cascading economic and social impacts of major power losses will be based on contingent and subjective valuation methods built into a computable general equilibrium model. This model is being validated using surveys in the Washington DC Metropolitan region. The assessed risks and costs are integrated in the power system planning phase.

[1]  James S. Thorp,et al.  Anatomy of power system disturbances : importance sampling , 1998 .

[2]  Reuven Y. Rubinstein,et al.  Simulation and the Monte Carlo method , 1981, Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics.

[3]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Risk modeling, assessment, and management , 1998 .

[4]  S. Nadarajah,et al.  Extreme Value Distributions: Theory and Applications , 2000 .

[5]  Patrick J. Kehoe,et al.  A Primer on Static Applied General Equilibrium Models , 1994 .

[6]  J. Neumann,et al.  Theory of games and economic behavior , 1945, 100 Years of Math Milestones.

[7]  F. B. Vernadat,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , 1994 .

[8]  M. Amin.  Toward Secure and Resilient Interdependent Infrastructures , 2002 .

[9]  Thomas D. Crocker,et al.  Incomplete beliefs and nonmarket valuation , 1998 .

[10]  Hiromitsu Kumamoto,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists , 1996 .

[11]  Lamine Mili,et al.  Risk assessment of catastrophic failures in electric power systems , 2004, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructures.

[12]  R. Adler,et al.  A practical guide to heavy tails: statistical techniques and applications , 1998 .

[13]  Truong Truong,et al.  GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model , 2002, GTAP Technical Paper Series.

[14]  C. Mamay,et al.  Effectiveness of Antithetic Sampling and Stratified Sampling in Monte Carlo Chronological Production Cost Modeling , 1991, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[15]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[16]  Paul V. Preckel,et al.  A general equilibrium framework for the food marketing system , 1994 .

[17]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods , 1994 .

[18]  C. Mamay,et al.  Effectiveness of Antithetic Sampling and Stratified Sampling in Monte Carlo Chronological Production Cost Modeling , 1991 .

[19]  E. Gumbel,et al.  Statistics of extremes , 1960 .