DECISION UNDER RISK CONDITIONS: ADVANTAGES OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR ARABIC COFFEE FUTURE CONTRACTS IN BM&FBOVESPA

The objective of this study was to verify the applicability of the technical analysis of Arabica coffee futures contracts negotiated in BM&FBovespa in period 1992 to 2009. In this regard, we used Arithmetic Moving Average (AMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Convergence and Divergence of Moving Averages (CDMA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).) The results indicated that the use of technical analysis methods applied to arabica coffee futures contracts reduced, significantly, the variation in returns earned, independently of the normality or not of the market conditions. Consequently, the amount of capital intended to maintain the margin of security of the operations performed was also reduced.