Scientific uncertainty in media content: Introduction to this special issue

This introduction sets the stage for the special issue on the public communication of scientific uncertainty that follows by sketching the wider landscape of issues related to the communication of uncertainty and showing how the individual contributions fit into that landscape. The first part of the introduction discusses the creation of media content as a process involving journalists, scientific sources, stakeholders, and the responsive audience. The second part then provides an overview of the perception of scientific uncertainty presented by the media and the consequences for the recipients’ own assessments of uncertainty. Finally, we briefly describe the six research articles included in this special issue.

[1]  Christopher E. Clarke,et al.  The Influence of Weight-of-Evidence Messages on (Vaccine) Attitudes: A Sequential Mediation Model , 2015, Journal of health communication.

[2]  M. Lehmkuhl,et al.  Constructing (un-)certainty: An exploration of journalistic decision-making in the reporting of neuroscience , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[3]  W. Winkelstein True Warnings and False Alarms: Evaluating Fears About the Health Risks of Technology, 1948-1971 , 2005 .

[4]  Alexander L. Davis,et al.  Communicating scientific uncertainty , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[5]  Dietram A. Scheufele,et al.  The case of #arseniclife: Blogs and Twitter in informal peer review , 2017, Public understanding of science.

[6]  J. Dearing Newspaper coverage of maverick science: creating controversy through balancing , 1995 .

[7]  Peter Weingart Die Stunde der Wahrheit? : zum Verhältnis der Wissenschaft zu Politik, Wirtschaft und Medien in der Wissensgesellschaft , 2001 .

[8]  Senja Post Communicating science in public controversies: Strategic considerations of the German climate scientists , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[9]  Vittorio Girotto,et al.  Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon , 2002, Cognition.

[10]  Len Ackland,et al.  Communicating Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and Controversial Science , 2000 .

[11]  Mitchell Ness,et al.  The views of scientific experts on how the public conceptualize uncertainty , 2003 .

[12]  Rainer Bromme,et al.  Dealing with Conflicting or Consistent Medical Information on the Web: When Expert Information Breeds Laypersons' Doubts about Experts. , 2011 .

[13]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999). , 1999 .

[14]  Thomas Boraud,et al.  Misrepresentation of Neuroscience Data Might Give Rise to Misleading Conclusions in the Media: The Case of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder , 2011, PloS one.

[15]  S. Dunwoody,et al.  The influence of weight-of-evidence strategies on audience perceptions of (un)certainty when media cover contested science , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[16]  P. Kokkonen,et al.  [Resources in the future]. , 2001, Duodecim; laaketieteellinen aikakauskirja.

[17]  D. Lindenmayer Merchants of Doubt. How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming , 2012 .

[18]  J. Dryzek,et al.  OXFORD HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIETY , 2013 .

[19]  Pamela J. Bretschneider,et al.  The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications , 2011 .

[20]  P. Weingart The Lure of the Mass Media and Its Repercussions on Science , 2012 .

[21]  R. Bromme,et al.  Evoking vigilance: Would you (dis)trust a scientist who discusses ethical implications of research in a science blog? , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[22]  Anthony Leiserowitz,et al.  Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season , 2007 .

[23]  Andrew R. Binder,et al.  Conflict or Caveats? Effects of Media Portrayals of Scientific Uncertainty on Audience Perceptions of New Technologies. , 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[24]  H. Kepplinger Künstliche Horizonte : Folgen, Darstellung und Akzeptanz von Technik in der Bundesrepublik , 1989 .

[25]  A. McCright,et al.  Organized Climate Change Denial , 2011 .

[26]  H. Peters,et al.  Öffentliche Kommunikation über Klimawandel und Sturmflutrisiken: Bedeutungskonstruktion durch Experten, Journalisten und Bürger , 2005 .

[27]  Anne Simmerling,et al.  Rhetorical functions of a ‘language of uncertainty’ in the mass media , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[28]  Hans Peter Peters,et al.  The interaction of journalists and scientific experts: co-operation and conflict between two professional cultures , 1995 .

[29]  Stakeholders' rationales for representing of scientific uncertainties of biotechnological Research , 2016 .

[30]  K. Teigen,et al.  There is a 60% probability, but I am 70% certain: communicative consequences of external and internal expressions of uncertainty , 2016 .

[31]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not , 2002, Cognition.

[32]  C. Bleckmann Evolution and Creationism in Science: 1880–2000 , 2006 .

[33]  Lars Guenther,et al.  Frames of scientific evidence: How journalists represent the (un)certainty of molecular medicine in science television programs , 2015, Public understanding of science.

[34]  Susan Joslyn,et al.  Communicating forecast uncertainty: public perception of weather forecast uncertainty , 2010 .

[35]  S. Dunwoody Scientists, journalists, and the meaning of uncertainty. , 1999 .

[36]  J. R. Cole,et al.  Scientific output and recognition: a study in the operation of the reward system in science. , 1967, American sociological review.

[37]  Jakob D. Jensen,et al.  Conflicting stories about public scientific controversies: Effects of news convergence and divergence on scientists’ credibility , 2012, Public understanding of science.

[38]  M. Greenberg,et al.  A Question of Quality: How Journalists and News Sources Evaluate Coverage of Environmental Risk , 1990 .

[39]  J. Corbett,et al.  Testing Public (Un)Certainty of Science , 2004 .

[40]  B. Libet Unconscious cerebral initiative and the role of conscious will in voluntary action , 1985, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[41]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[42]  S. Dunwoody,et al.  Exploring lay uncertainty about an environmental health risk , 2007 .

[43]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  A study of expert overconfidence , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[44]  M. Bucchi Science and the Media: Alternative Routes in Scientific Communication , 2014 .

[45]  A. Tversky,et al.  Variants of uncertainty , 1982, Cognition.

[46]  Timothy Caulfield,et al.  Confronting stem cell hype , 2016, Science.

[47]  Brian L. Campbell,et al.  Uncertainty as Symbolic Action in Disputes Among Experts , 1985 .

[48]  Stephen Hilgartner,et al.  The Dominant View of Popularization: Conceptual Problems, Political Uses , 1990 .

[49]  R. Merton Social Theory and Social Structure , 1958 .

[50]  Senja Post,et al.  Stakeholders’ rationales for representing uncertainties of biotechnological research , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[51]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[52]  M. Boykoff,et al.  Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press☆ , 2004 .

[53]  Eleanor Singer,et al.  Reporting on Risk: How the Mass Media Portray Accidents, Diseases, Disasters and Other Hazards , 1993 .

[54]  Hans Peter Peters,et al.  The committed are hard to persuade. Recipients' thoughts during exposure to newspaper and TV stories on genetic engineering and their effect on attitudes , 2000 .

[55]  Dominique Brossard,et al.  The "Nasty Effect: " Online Incivility and Risk Perceptions of Emerging Technologies , 2014, J. Comput. Mediat. Commun..

[56]  J. Gaston Communication and the Reward System of Science: A Study of a National ‘Invisible College’ , 1970 .

[57]  Lars Guenther,et al.  Scientific evidence and mass media: Investigating the journalistic intention to represent scientific uncertainty , 2016, Public understanding of science.

[58]  Jakob D. Jensen Scientific Uncertainty in News Coverage of Cancer Research: Effects of Hedging on Scientists' and Journalists' Credibility , 2008 .

[59]  Nathan F Dieckmann,et al.  At Home on the Range? Lay Interpretations of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[60]  S. Stocking,et al.  Manufacturing doubt: journalists' roles and the construction of ignorance in a scientific controversy , 2009, Public understanding of science.