Mass Screening Models for Contagious Diseases with No Latent Period

In this paper, a simplified model describing the stochastic process underlying the etiology of contagious and noncontagious diseases with mass screening is developed. Typical examples might include screening of tuberculosis in urban ghetto areas, venereal diseases in the sexually active, or AIDS in high risk population groups. The model is addressed to diseases which have zero or negligible latent periods. In the model, it is assumed that the reliabilities of the screening tests are constant, and independent of how long the population unit has the disease. Both tests with perfect and imperfect reliabilities are considered. It is shown that most of the results of a 1978 study by W.P. Pierskalla and J.A. Voelker for noncontagious diseases can be generalized for contagious diseases. A mathematical program for computing the optimal test choice and screening periods is presented. It is shown that the optimal screening schedule is equally spaced for tests with perfect reliability. Other properties relating to the managerial problems of screening frequencies, test selection, and resource allocation are also presented.

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