Asymptotic harvesting of populations in random environments

We consider the harvesting of a population in a stochastic environment whose dynamics in the absence of harvesting is described by a one dimensional diffusion. Using ergodic optimal control, we find the optimal harvesting strategy which maximizes the asymptotic yield of harvested individuals. To our knowledge, ergodic optimal control has not been used before to study harvesting strategies. However, it is a natural framework because the optimal harvesting strategy will never be such that the population is harvested to extinction—instead the harvested population converges to a unique invariant probability measure. When the yield function is the identity, we show that the optimal strategy has a bang–bang property: there exists a threshold $$x^*>0$$x∗>0 such that whenever the population is under the threshold the harvesting rate must be zero, whereas when the population is above the threshold the harvesting rate must be at the upper limit. We provide upper and lower bounds on the maximal asymptotic yield, and explore via numerical simulations how the harvesting threshold and the maximal asymptotic yield change with the growth rate, maximal harvesting rate, or the competition rate. We also show that, if the yield function is $$C^2$$C2 and strictly concave, then the optimal harvesting strategy is continuous, whereas when the yield function is convex the optimal strategy is of bang–bang type. This shows that one cannot always expect bang–bang type optimal controls.

[1]  R. Khasminskii Stochastic Stability of Differential Equations , 1980 .

[2]  Ganapati P. Patil,et al.  The gamma distribution and weighted multimodal gamma distributions as models of population abundance , 1984 .

[3]  Joshua R. Smith An Analysis Of Optimal Replenishable Resource Management Under Uncertainty , 1978 .

[4]  R M May,et al.  Harvesting Natural Populations in a Randomly Fluctuating Environment , 1977, Science.

[5]  Hanna Kokko,et al.  Optimal and suboptimal use of compensatory responses to harvesting: timing of hunting as an example , 2001, Wildlife Biology.

[6]  A. Borodin,et al.  Handbook of Brownian Motion - Facts and Formulae , 1996 .

[7]  Alexandru Hening,et al.  Persistence in Stochastic Lotka–Volterra Food Chains with Intraspecific Competition , 2017, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.

[8]  Thomas C. Gard Persistence in stochastic food web models , 1984 .

[9]  S. Schreiber,et al.  Persistence in fluctuating environments for interacting structured populations , 2013, Journal of Mathematical Biology.

[10]  M. Shaffer Minimum Population Sizes for Species Conservation , 1981 .

[11]  Michel Benaïm,et al.  Persistence of structured populations in random environments. , 2009, Theoretical population biology.

[12]  E. Leigh,et al.  The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment. , 1981, Journal of theoretical biology.

[13]  V. Borkar Ergodic Control of Diffusion Processes , 2012 .

[14]  R. Primack,et al.  Essentials of Conservation Biology , 1994 .

[15]  N. Stern,et al.  The theory of cost-benefit analysis , 1987 .

[16]  An optimal harvesting policy for a logistic model in a randomly varying environment , 1981 .

[17]  Thomas G. Hallam,et al.  Persistence in food webs—I Lotka-Volterra food chains , 1979 .

[18]  Alexandru Hening,et al.  Stochastic Lotka–Volterra food chains , 2017, Journal of mathematical biology.

[19]  Frithjof Lutscher,et al.  Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles , 2016, The American Naturalist.

[20]  AN OPTIMAL HUNTING POLICY FOR A STOCHASTIC LOGISTIC MODEL , 1979 .

[21]  Alexandru Hening,et al.  Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments: the density-dependent case , 2016, Journal of Mathematical Biology.

[22]  Luis H. R. Alvarez,et al.  Optimal harvesting of stochastically fluctuating populations , 1998 .

[23]  Robert M. May,et al.  Exploiting natural populations in an uncertain world , 1978 .

[24]  Donald Ludwig,et al.  Uncertainty, Resource Exploitation, and Conservation: Lessons from History. , 1993, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[25]  B. L. Boeuf,et al.  Female competition and reproductive success in northern elephant seals , 1981, Animal Behaviour.

[26]  C. Bradshaw,et al.  Minimum viable population size: A meta-analysis of 30 years of published estimates , 2007 .

[27]  Luis H. R. Alvarez,et al.  Singular stochastic control in the presence of a state-dependent yield structure , 2000 .

[28]  T. Gard Persistence in stochastic food web models , 1984 .

[29]  Martin Kolb,et al.  Quasistationary distributions for one-dimensional diffusions with singular boundary points , 2014, Stochastic Processes and their Applications.

[30]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous - time model Journal of Economic Theory 3 , 1971 .

[31]  S. Zacks,et al.  Introduction to stochastic differential equations , 1988 .

[32]  B. Øksendal,et al.  Optimal harvesting from a population in a stochastic crowded environment. , 1997, Mathematical biosciences.

[33]  Peter L. Ralph,et al.  Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments , 2011, Journal of Mathematical Biology.

[34]  Alexandru Hening,et al.  Coexistence and extinction for stochastic Kolmogorov systems , 2017, The Annals of Applied Probability.

[35]  A. Mas-Colell,et al.  Microeconomic Theory , 1995 .

[36]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case , 1969 .

[37]  S. Schreiber,et al.  Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments , 2010, Theoretical Ecology.

[38]  M. Turelli Random environments and stochastic calculus. , 1977, Theoretical population biology.

[39]  J. Reynolds,et al.  Marine Fish Population Collapses: Consequences for Recovery and Extinction Risk , 2004 .

[40]  S. Ethier,et al.  Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence , 2005 .

[41]  Y. Kamarianakis Ergodic control of diffusion processes , 2013 .

[42]  Christian Berg,et al.  Convexity of the median in the gamma distribution , 2006, math/0609442.

[43]  Sebastian J. Schreiber,et al.  Protected polymorphisms and evolutionary stability of patch-selection strategies in stochastic environments , 2014, bioRxiv.

[44]  The Chen-Rubin Conjecture in a Continuous Setting , 2004, math/0411282.

[45]  Steinar Engen,et al.  Optimal Harvesting of Fluctuating Populations with a Risk of Extinction , 1995, The American Naturalist.

[46]  S. Dreyfus,et al.  Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: the Continuous-time Case , 2006 .

[47]  Sebastian J. Schreiber,et al.  Persistence in fluctuating environments , 2010, Journal of mathematical biology.

[48]  C. Braumann,et al.  Variable effort harvesting models in random environments: generalization to density-dependent noise intensities. , 2002, Mathematical biosciences.