Research on the Self-Repairing Model of Outliers in Energy Data Based on Regional Convergence

The need for the statistical stability of data is increasing nowadays as the data resource has become a more and more important production factor. In this study, a set of general identification and correction models are established for data outlier modification. The research object we chose is the data of per capita energy consumption. Based on the joint diagnosis method of outliers and the regional convergence theory, the abrupt outliers are identified and corrected. The study finds that there is an outlier in the data of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. According to the club grouping method, 30 provinces in China are divided into two clubs and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is determined to be in the first club. We calculate the convergence rate and obtain the correction results combining the half-life cycle model.

[1]  Lon-Mu Liu,et al.  Joint Estimation of Model Parameters and Outlier Effects in Time Series , 1993 .

[2]  M. Otto,et al.  Outliers in Time Series , 1972 .

[3]  Ping Chen,et al.  Synthetic detection of change point and outliers in bilinear time series models , 2015, Int. J. Syst. Sci..

[4]  Shatakshee Dhongde,et al.  Convergence in income distributions: Evidence from a panel of countries , 2016 .

[5]  N. L. Hansen,et al.  Intranational Price Convergence and Price Stickiness: Evidence from Denmark , 2018, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

[6]  J. Cuñado,et al.  Real convergence in some Central and Eastern European countries , 2006 .

[7]  A. Golpe,et al.  Exploring the Regional Distribution of Tourism and the Extent to Which There Is Convergence , 2016 .

[8]  R. Smyth,et al.  Convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries , 2014 .

[9]  R. Martin,et al.  Leave‐K‐Out Diagnostics for Time Series , 1989 .

[10]  Young Se Kim Electricity consumption and economic development: Are countries converging to a common trend? , 2015 .

[11]  Donggyu Sul,et al.  Economic Transition and Growth , 2005 .

[12]  John A. List,et al.  Have air pollutant emissions converged among U.S. regions? Evidence from unit root tests , 1999 .

[13]  L. Gil‐Alana,et al.  Stochastic convergence of renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: a fractional integration approach , 2018, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[14]  Charu C. Aggarwal,et al.  Subspace histograms for outlier detection in linear time , 2018, Knowledge and Information Systems.

[15]  W. Baumol Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show , 1985 .

[16]  R. Solow A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth , 1956 .

[17]  R. Tsay Time Series Model Specification in the Presence of Outliers , 1986 .

[18]  N. Apergis,et al.  Integration of regional electricity markets in Australia: A price convergence assessment , 2017 .

[19]  Biao Wang,et al.  Outlier detection based on Gaussian process with application to industrial processes , 2019, Appl. Soft Comput..

[20]  Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China , 2014 .

[21]  Brantley Liddle,et al.  Economy-wide and manufacturing energy productivity transition paths and club convergence for OECD and non-OECD countries , 2017 .

[22]  J. Cuñado,et al.  Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century , 2006 .

[23]  Oded Galor,et al.  Convergence ? : Inferences from Theoretical Models , 2017 .

[24]  Donggyu Sul,et al.  Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests , 2007 .

[25]  R. Barro,et al.  Convergence across States and Regions , 1991 .