Long Memory Features Evolve in the Time-varying Process in Asia-pacific Foreign Exchange Markets

Abstract We investigated the presence of, and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of six Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets (Australian dollar, Japanese yen, Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Singaporean dollar, and Taiwan dollar) using time-varying Hurst exponents. In particular, instead of relying on a single static measure of long memory, we explored time-varying long memory features over time to assess changes in market efficiency by analyzing the returns and volatility of the markets. Furthermore, considering a time-varying rolling approach, we estimated values of the Hurst exponent for time windows with 1,000 observations (about 4 years of data) in each window. The estimation results indicated that both the returns and the volatility series possessed strong long memory features and that the degree of the long memory features changed over time. Additionally, the Hurst exponent showed an upward trend during the 1997 Asian currency crisis and 2008 global financial crisis, indicating that exchange rate markets became inefficient and predictable during the financial crisis.

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